Poll Shows Susan Collins Clings to Slim Edge Over Troy Jackson in Maine

When the numbers rolled in on Wednesday, they painted a picture of a dead‑heat race for Maine’s open Senate seat. Quantus Insights surveyed likely voters and reported that Sen. Susan Collins (R‑ME) is perched just ahead of Democrat Troy Jackson, hovering at 47.1 percent to Jackson’s 46.4 percent.

That razor‑thin gap shrinks even more—down to a whisper of 0.2 percentage points—once you factor in respondents who said they leaned toward one candidate or the other. In that slice of the data, Collins stands at 47.6 percent while Jackson trails close behind at 47.4 percent.

But the poll’s own 4.3‑point margin of error swallows the whole difference, meaning neither candidate can claim a decisive advantage just yet. The real story, however, is how sharply the electorate splits along gender, age and geography.

Men, older voters and folks in the rural parts of the state tend to side with Collins. He leads women (51.6 % to 41.6 %), younger voters and suburban residents. Among voters 45 and older, Collins enjoys a modest edge, whereas Jackson pulls ahead among the under‑45 crowd—particularly those aged 30‑44, where he enjoys a 54‑37 lead.

Geography adds another layer. Jackson dominates Maine’s 1st Congressional District, winning 54 % to Collins’s 39 %, while the 2nd District flips the other way, giving Collins a comfortable 56‑39 margin.

Party loyalty remains strong: 91 % of Republicans back Collins, and 88 % of Democrats stand behind Jackson. Unaffiliated voters are a toss‑up, with Jackson edging Collins 45 % to 42 % and 13 % still undecided.

Favorability isn’t exactly glowing for either contender. Collins is seen favorably by 46.3 % of respondents but unfavorably by 53 %; Jackson’s numbers are close, with 45.5 % favorable and 50.6 % unfavorable.

The poll was conducted over two days, September 14‑15, sampling 644 likely Maine voters. After weeding out the non‑voters, 621 responses formed the basis of the headline numbers.