Steve Hilton vs. Xavier Becerra: California Gubernatorial Race Heats Up Seven Weeks Before the Midterms

Seven weeks out from the November ballot, California’s gubernatorial showdown between Republican hopeful Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra is anything but a dead heat. Recent numbers still give Becerra a comfortable cushion, but Hilton’s camp is waving the modest gains as a sign of turning tides.

The latest Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll, conducted Sep. 4‑10 among 1,098 likely voters, puts Becerra at 60 % and Hilton at 38 %. That’s a 22‑point lead, a two‑point improvement for Hilton over the June‑July PPIC survey. In the campaign’s own poll, however, the gap shrank to about eight points – 49.2 % for Becerra versus 41 % for Hilton.

Hilton’s spokesperson, Hector Barajas, brushed off the numbers. “Californians are fed up with rising prices and a government that seems out of touch,” he told Newsweek. “The first debate will be a turning point.” Meanwhile, Becerra’s team stayed quiet, letting the numbers speak for themselves.

Other independent polls tell a similar story. A University of California, Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey in early August showed Becerra leading 55 % to 37 %. A mid‑June Kreate Strategies poll registered a 25‑point gap. The only outlier remains the Hilton‑commissioned Wolfson poll, which still showed the race tighter than the rest.

What’s driving voter sentiment? Affordability. A solid 65 % of likely voters say a candidate’s stance on the cost of living is “very important” to their vote. Housing, gas and electricity bills dominate the conversation. Both candidates have built their platforms around that theme: Becerra pledges to curb housing costs and protect healthcare, while Hilton promises $3‑a‑gallon gas and half‑price electric bills by boosting domestic oil production and easing refinery regulations.

Even as the gap persists, prediction markets hardly budge. Polymarket and Kalshi both price Becerra’s chance of winning at roughly 96 %, leaving Hilton with a slim 4 % probability.

California’s political landscape makes Hilton’s quest steep. The last Republican governor was Arnold Schwarzenegger, elected in 2003 and re‑elected in 2006. Since then, Democrats dominate state‑wide races, enjoying a nearly 2‑to‑1 registration advantage. Still, the Republican base is energized, especially after former President Trump’s endorsement of Hilton in April.

Looking ahead, the upcoming debate could be a litmus test. If Hilton can translate his campaign’s upbeat messaging into concrete voter enthusiasm, the margins might tighten. But as things stand, most forecasters, including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, view Becerra as the clear favorite.