Scientists hunt for dengue severity markers in Kerala

Dengue fever has long been the nightmare of clinicians in the tropics – one moment a patient seems to be on the mend, the next they plunge into hemorrhagic shock. The unpredictability is what makes the disease so terrifying.

Even though the World Health Organization tells doctors to watch out for ‘red flags’ like persistent vomiting, abdominal pain, nose or gum bleeding, and lethargy, these symptoms usually surface only after the body’s internal storm has already started brewing.

That’s why, over the past twenty years, scientists worldwide have been hunting for biomarkers – measurable clues in blood or other fluids – that could shout out danger much earlier, ideally during the febrile phase when the fever is still climbing.

Now, a team at the Institute of Advanced Virology in Thiruvananthapuram has rolled up its sleeves for a massive prospective study. They plan to follow roughly 2,000 dengue patients, collecting blood samples at several time‑points, and then correlating the laboratory data with how each case unfolds.

“If we can identify a handful of markers, or even a combination of them, that reliably predicts who will deteriorate, we could intervene before the patient even feels sick,” says lead researcher Dr. C. Maya. “That would be a game‑changer for hospitals overwhelmed during peak seasons.”

The project already ran a pilot involving 150 volunteers. Preliminary results hinted that certain cytokines and platelet‑related proteins might be the tell‑tale signs, but the sample was too small to draw firm conclusions.

To broaden the scope, the institute signed a Memorandum of Understanding with three major medical colleges in Kerala – Believers’ Church Medical College, Pushpagiri Institute of Medical Sciences, and Government Medical College, Thiruvananthapuram. These partners will help screen patient samples and track clinical outcomes, ensuring the study captures the diversity of real‑world cases.

Kerala, being hyper‑endemic for dengue, sees seasonal surges that flood hospitals with feverish patients. In such chaos, keeping everyone admitted for observation is simply not feasible. A reliable early warning system could spare both patients and overtaxed health‑care workers.

While the hunt for a perfect biomarker continues, the researchers remain cautiously optimistic. “Science is rarely a straight line,” Maya adds with a chuckle, “but each data point brings us a step closer to spotting the danger before it strikes.”