Saints vs. Lions Week 1 Preview: Can New Orleans Pull Off the Upset in Detroit?

It’s a chilly September Sunday in Detroit and the Lions are taking the field as the clear betting favorites. The sportsbook line lists New Orleans at +6.5, meaning the Lions are expected to win by a touchdown and a field goal. That gap feels big, but it isn’t insurmountable – especially with a brand‑new quarterback leading the Saints’ offense.

Tyler Shough, the rookie who earned the starting nod in the offseason, will be making his first regular‑season snap. He’s shown flashes of poise in the preseason, flashing a quick release and a willingness to run when the pocket collapses. Pair him with a backfield that now includes the bruising power of Travis Etienne and the speed of rookie Bryce Lance, and you have a trio that can keep the Lions’ defense guessing.

Detroit, meanwhile, leans heavily on the arm of Jared Goff and the play‑making of Amon‑Ra St. Brown. The Lions’ offensive line looks healthier than it did last year, and the coaching staff has emphasized a more balanced attack – mixing the run early to set up play‑action passes. If they can establish the ground game, Goff’s deep ball should find its mark.

Defensively, the Saints are dealing with a few notable absences. Their pass‑rushing specialist, defensive end Marcus Davenport, is still nursing a shoulder strain. That could give the Lions an easier time pressuring Goff. However, New Orleans’ secondary, now under the tutelage of Kellen Moore, has been drilled on nickel and dime packages that could confuse Goff’s timing.

On the other side of the ball, Detroit’s defensive front is robust. Defensive tackle Danny Trevathan returns from injury and should help plug the middle, while edge‑rusher Aidan Hutchinson looks ready to unleash his pass rush. If the Lions can generate pressure without overcommitting to the run, they’ll make life miserable for Shough.

Special teams could also swing the momentum. The Lions have a reliable kicker in Daniel Carlson, who’s hit 90% of his attempts this offseason. The Saints, however, have a new rookie punter who can flip field position quickly – something that may matter if the game stays close.

So, who takes the win? Our projection is a tight contest that ends with the Lions edging out a 24‑20 victory. We think the Saints will keep it within a field goal thanks to Shough’s poise and Etienne’s ability to break big runs. The final margin, however, leans toward Detroit, covering the spread.

Betting tip: Take the Lions at -6.5 if you want the safer play, but consider a modest parlay with the Lions’ over/under set at 40.5 points – the combined offense of Goff and Shough could push the total just over that line.