On3 pushes Notre Dame out of CFP top‑five in latest projections

It’s a strange feeling for a program that’s been humming along at No. 3 in the AP Top 25 and the US LBM Coaches poll to watch the numbers slip a notch in a computer‑generated projection. On3, the analytics outfit that’s been feeding the college‑football community a steady stream of data‑driven rankings, released its Week 3 College Football Playoff outlook on Tuesday and, for the first time this season, the Fighting Irish are sitting just outside the coveted top‑five.

That shift comes after Notre Dame’s 27‑10 victory over Michigan State – a win that kept the Irish unbeaten and extended Marcus Freeman’s double‑digit win streak to three games. The Spartans, long‑time rivals, finally tasted defeat, and the Irish celebrated with a defensive showcase that included a 61‑yard touchdown pass from CJ Carr and a game‑changing fumble recovery by defensive lineman Boubacar Traoré.

But the computer model tells a slightly different story. On3’s algorithm weighs strength of schedule, margin of victory, and a host of advanced metrics. While the Irish still rank high, the model nudged them to No. 6, just behind the SEC juggernauts that have been climbing in the polls and a couple of surprise performers that slipped into the conversation this week.

Fans and pundits alike are quick to point out that rankings are only part of the picture. “We’re still No. 3 in the human polls, and we’ve proven we can dominate a quality opponent,” said a frustrated yet optimistic Freeman in his post‑game press conference. “The numbers will come around if we keep doing what we’re doing.”

Looking ahead, Notre Dame’s schedule remains tough. The Irish travel to Purdue next weekend, where they’re heavy favorites, before facing a challenging BYU showdown and a high‑stakes clash with Miami later in the season. How those games play out will likely dictate whether the Irish can climb back into On3’s top‑five or watch the algorithm keep them on the outside.