On3 Pushes Notre Dame Out of CFP Top‑Five After Week 3

It’s a strange feeling when you’re riding high on a three‑game winning streak and, all of a sudden, a computer model nudges you out of the elite group you thought you’d earned. That’s exactly what happened to the Fighting Irish on Tuesday.

On3 released its latest College Football Playoff (CFP) projections and, for the first time this season, Notre Dame is no longer listed among the top five teams. The model places the Irish somewhere between No. 6 and No. 9, depending on the version you look at. Yet, in the more traditional polls, they remain a solid No. 3 in both the Associated Press and the US LBM Coaches rankings.

So, what caused the drop? It’s not a sudden loss of talent or a dramatic change in coaching. The Irish just beat Michigan State 27‑10 in a game that, while comfortable, didn’t quite light up the scoreboard like a 50‑point blowout. More importantly, the Spartans are now 0‑2 and sit near the bottom of the strength‑of‑schedule charts. On3’s algorithm leans heavily on opponent quality, and a win over a struggling team doesn’t boost a program’s projection the way a victory over a top‑ten foe would.

Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame’s head coach, seemed unfazed. After the game he said, “We’re still focused on the next opponent. Rankings come and go; the work we do each week is what matters.” His words echo a sentiment that’s been growing louder around South Bend: the Irish are in a “golden window” where they can afford a few bumps in the CFP models as long as they keep winning.

That window, however, is narrowing. The next two weeks bring matchups against BYU and Miami—teams that, if they pull off upsets, could push the Irish further down the algorithmic ladder. On3’s projections also factor in injury reports, turnover margins, and even how quickly a team’s offense can score. Notre Dame’s rushing attack, led by Micah Gilbert, has looked solid, but the passing game still shows a few rust spots, which the model penalizes.

Fans, of course, have mixed feelings. Some grumble that a computer can’t capture the intangibles—the Irish’s ferocious defense, the home‑field roar at Notre Dame Stadium, and the sheer determination that’s kept them unbeaten. Others appreciate the extra motivation: being knocked out of the top five might light a fire under the players and coaching staff, driving them to prove the model wrong.

In the grand scheme, a slip in the CFP projection isn’t a death sentence. History shows that teams outside the top five at mid‑season can still break into the playoff with a string of quality wins. For now, Notre Dame sits at 3‑0, still boasting a double‑digit win streak, and looks poised to keep the conversation alive—whether the computer agrees or not.

Bottom line: the Irish may have to fight a little harder for the respect of a numbers‑driven model, but they’ve earned every bit of the buzz on the field. The next few games will tell whether they can turn a statistical setback into a playoff‑worthy resume.