Nomura Flags Rs 12‑15 Per Bag Cement Hikes as Fuel Costs Surge; UltraTech Cement Tops the List

India’s cement sector is feeling the heat – and not just the usual summer kind. Nomura’s latest market note points out that fuel inputs, especially petcoke, have jumped roughly 25% quarter‑on‑quarter as of October 2026. That spike is doing more than just inflating the bottom line; it’s forcing manufacturers to rethink pricing.

According to the brokerage, a price increase of roughly Rs 12‑15 per bag is what’s required to offset the extra fuel expense. It’s not a wishful suggestion – the numbers come from a close look at cost structures and the recent lift in imported petcoke prices. In plain terms, if a bag currently sells for about Rs 350, the firm would need to charge Rs 362‑365 just to stay on level ground.

But raising prices isn’t a free‑play button. Nomura stresses that the industry must not only absorb the already announced hikes but also move quickly on any further adjustments. The window is tight because seasonal demand tends to slump as the monsoon approaches, and a delayed price pass‑through could squeeze margins.

Amid this backdrop, UltraTech Cement emerges as the standout recommendation. The analyst team still sees it as the top pick, citing the company’s strong distribution network, relatively efficient fuel mix and a track record of passing on costs without losing market share. In other words, UltraTech appears better positioned to handle the inevitable price rise.

Other players aren’t left out of the conversation. The note hints that smaller and mid‑cap cement makers may feel the pinch more acutely, especially if they rely heavily on imported fuel or lack the brand leverage to push higher prices onto buyers.

Bottom line: the cement landscape is at a crossroads. If companies can swing the Rs 12‑15‑per‑bag increase through to the market before the seasonal dip, they’ll likely keep margins intact. Failure to do so could see profit erosion, especially for those without the UltraTech‑style cushion.

Investors should keep an eye on price‑absorption trends, fuel‑cost trajectories and any policy moves that could affect petcoke imports. For now, UltraTech Cement remains the analyst’s beacon in a fog of rising costs.