Musk’s warning: Short‑seller bets on SpaceX swell to 32 % of float

When you look at the numbers, it’s hard to miss the uptick: short‑seller positions in SpaceX now total about 206 million shares, which works out to roughly 32 % of the company’s float. That’s an increase from roughly 185 million shares just a week ago and about 40 million more than a month earlier, according to the data crunchers at S3 Partners.

Put another way, investors betting against the rocket‑builder have piled on roughly $25 billion worth of stock at today’s price – a hefty sum for a firm that only went public a few months back.

And it hasn’t gone unnoticed. On July 17, Elon Musk took to X and wrote, “The survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low.” He basically told the doubters that their gamble might not survive the next launch.

Adding to the drama, SpaceX is slated to release its first quarterly earnings after the market closes on August 4, 2026. Analysts say the numbers will be closely watched, especially because the company’s lock‑up period is set to start unraveling shortly thereafter – another potential catalyst that could push more shares into the market.

Let’s not forget the basics: SpaceX floated at $135 a share in its IPO, and the stock is currently hovering around $123‑$128, giving the company a market cap near $1.6 trillion. The publicly tradable float sits at roughly 640 million shares, a tiny slice of the roughly 13 billion total shares outstanding.

So what does this all mean? For now, the short‑interest numbers suggest a growing chorus of skeptics, but Musk’s blunt reminder may just be a reminder that the rocket ship isn’t going to stall easily. The upcoming earnings and the lock‑up expirations will likely decide whether the short sellers get burned or make a clean escape.