Minnesota Senate Race Tightens as Poll Shows Deadlock Between Flanagan and Tafoya

When the numbers rolled in last week, they painted a picture that almost anyone following Minnesota politics could have guessed: the U.S. Senate race is anyone’s game. The latest poll, fielded by the TIPP/League of American Workers between Aug. 31 and Sep. 2, found Democrat Peggy Flanagan edging Republican Michele Tafoya by a razor‑thin 44 percent to 42 percent among likely voters. That two‑point cushion sits squarely within the survey’s three‑point margin of error, meaning the two candidates are essentially tied.

It’s a story that feels familiar in a midterm year. Voters are restless, the president’s party traditionally loses seats, and both campaigns are scrambling to lock down the handful of undecided voters who could tip the scales. The race is for the seat that will be vacated by Senator Tina Smith, who’s stepping down after three terms.

What makes this particular poll worth noting is who asked the questions. The League of American Workers, a conservative‑leaning advocacy group run by former Trump adviser Steve Cortes, isn’t formally tied to the GOP, but its leanings are clear. Still, the methodology—1,201 likely voters, a standard 3‑point error bar—aligns with industry norms, giving the findings a reasonable degree of credibility.

Flanagan, currently Minnesota’s lieutenant governor, clinched the Democratic nomination after beating Rep. Angie Craig in a primary that many read as a win for the party’s progressive wing. She’s earned endorsements from figures like Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Ilhan Omar, and she commands strong support among younger voters, women, and people of color. The poll shows her leading among Gen‑Z, Millennials, Black and Hispanic voters, while Tafoya is pulling ahead with older, white male voters.

Tafoya, a former NFL sideline reporter turned political newcomer, secured the Republican nod by leaning on her name recognition and outsider appeal. Her campaign has been quick to paint her as a loyal Trump ally—a narrative Flanagan’s team has amplified. In a statement to Newsweek, Flanagan spokesperson Lexi Byler slammed Tafoya as “nothing but a loyal soldier to Donald Trump,” citing the former president’s immigration policies and stances on the Jan. 6 rioters as reasons why Minnesotans should choose the Democrat.

Tafoya herself has been less than shy on social media. On X, she wrote, “Our race is in play! Minnesotans are fed up with billions in taxpayer dollars being stolen while the people in charge refuse to take responsibility.” She framed the contest as a choice between accountability and “criminals stealing billions,” positioning Flanagan’s tenure as lieutenant governor as part of that problem.

Beyond the rhetoric, the numbers reveal a nuanced electorate. Both candidates are neck‑and‑neck with independent voters at 37 percent each. Among registered voters, Flanagan holds a modest 40 percent to Tafoya’s 38 percent, based on a separate poll of 1,494 respondents (margin of error 2.7 percent). Favorability scores are similarly close: Flanagan’s 39 percent favorable rating just outpaces Tafoya’s 34 percent, while each also carries a comparable share of unfavorable impressions.

What does this mean for the campaign trail? With two months left until Election Day, the small pool of undecided voters becomes the prized commodity. Both campaigns will likely double down on outreach to older white voters and younger minorities, respectively, while trying to peel off independents who haven’t yet made up their minds.

Predictive markets echo the poll’s tightness but tilt heavily toward Flanagan. On Kalshi, she carries a 90.5 percent chance of winning, while Polymarket puts her at 94 percent. Those figures feel optimistic for the Democrat, especially given the historical midterm headwinds that Republican candidates often enjoy when the president’s party is in the White House.

Regardless of the odds, the race feels more like a marathon than a sprint. The candidates are locked in a battle of narratives—Flanagan as the champion of working families, Tafoya as the defender of Trump’s agenda. As the November ballot draws near, Minnesotans will have to decide whether policy positions, personal history, or party allegiance will ultimately guide their vote.

One thing is clear: Minnesota’s Senate seat will not be decided in the next few days. It will be decided at the polls, where every percentage point counts, and where a two‑point lead can evaporate faster than a summer thunderstorm.