Minnesota Senate Contest Too Close to Call, New Poll Reveals

When you look at the latest numbers coming out of Minnesota, the Senate race looks anything but a foregone conclusion. A poll conducted between August 31 and September 2 by TIPP/League of American Workers asked 1,201 likely voters who they’d back for the seat that Senator Tina Smith is leaving, and the results are practically neck‑and‑neck.

According to the survey, Democrat Peggy Flanagan nudged ahead with 44 percent support, while Republican Michele Tafoya trailed close behind at 42 percent. A two‑point gap is well inside the poll’s 3‑point margin of error, meaning the two candidates are essentially tied for now.

The poll also captured a small slice of the electorate: 4 percent said they’d vote for someone else, another 2 percent were unsure, and 8 percent simply didn’t know. When you add up the undecided and third‑party voters, you’ve got a modest but still meaningful pool that could swing the final outcome.

Flanagan, who is currently Minnesota’s lieutenant governor, clinched the Democratic nomination after a hard‑fought primary against Rep. Angie Craig. Her win was seen as a victory for the party’s progressive wing, earning endorsements from figures like Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Ilhan Omar. She’s been praised by supporters for championing working‑family issues and for her stance on gender‑transition policies for minors.

On the other side, Tafoya—a longtime NFL sideline reporter turned political outsider—secured the GOP nod and is now banking on her name recognition and a message that aligns closely with former President Donald Trump’s agenda. Her campaign has been quick to frame the race as a battle between “Trump‑aligned policies” and “what working families need,” a line that has already found its way into a fervent press release from Flanagan’s team.

Demographically, the poll paints a fairly classic picture: Flanagan leads among Gen‑Z, Millennials, women, Black and Hispanic voters, while Tafoya finds stronger footing with older voters (45 plus), men and white voters. Both candidates claim about 37 percent of the independent vote, which could be the decisive factor as the campaign heats up.

Favorability scores are similarly tight. Tafoya’s favorability stands at 34 percent with a 30‑percent unfavorable rating; 36 percent of respondents have no opinion. Flanagan fares a shade better—39 percent favorable, 34 percent unfavorable, and 28 percent undecided. Those numbers suggest neither candidate has a clear emotional edge yet.

What’s especially interesting is how prediction‑market platforms are already weighing in. On Monday, Kalshi gave Flanagan a 90.5 percent chance of winning, while Polymarket posted an even higher 94 percent likelihood for her. Those odds contrast sharply with the on‑the‑ground polling, reminding us that market expectations can diverge wildly from voter sentiment.

With just two months left before the November midterms, the race remains fluid. Both camps have a lot of ground to cover, especially the undecided voters who are still wavering. As the campaigns pour more money into ads, grassroots outreach, and debate prep, Minnesota’s Senate seat could swing either way—making it one of the most closely watched contests in the nation’s 2026 election cycle.