Jio IPO price band trims Reliance valuation; Bharti Airtel looks attractively priced

Nomura has quietly re‑calculated the numbers after the buzz around Jio Platforms’ upcoming listing. According to the brokerage, the IPO price band is likely to sit somewhere between ₹1,065 and ₹1,119 per share. That range translates into an equity value of roughly ₹9.8‑₹10.3 lakh crore (about $101‑$107 billion) for the whole Jio entity.

When you throw in the FY26 net‑debt load – roughly ₹1.4 lakh crore when you include deferred spectrum fees and lease liabilities – the enterprise value (EV) nudges up to about ₹10.9‑₹11.4 lakh crore, or $113‑$118 billion. In plain English, that’s 11‑15 % shy of the $133 billion EV that Nomura had been pencilling in, based on a 12‑times June 2028 EBITDA multiple.

What does that mean for Reliance Industries (RIL)? The firm holds about 66.4 % of Jio Platforms. At the upper end of the price band, Nomura says that stake would be worth ₹481‑₹506 per Reliance share – roughly 41‑43 % of Reliance’s current market price. If you apply a typical 20 % holding‑company discount, the figure falls to about ₹385‑₹405 per share, or 33‑35 % of today’s price.

In Nomura’s own sum‑of‑the‑parts (SOTP) model, they still value the Jio holding at ₹541 per Reliance share, a number that ignores the holding‑company discount. The broker points out that Reliance’s stock has already taken a sharp tumble – down about 26 % year‑to‑date, versus a 14 % slide in the NIFTY – which, in their view, more than offsets the modest valuation downgrade.

Switching gears to the competition, Nomura is unabashedly bullish on Bharti Airtel. The telecom giant, they argue, is better placed to ride upcoming tariff hikes, thanks to a higher share of premium subscribers. The brokerage keeps a “Buy” rating on Airtel, with a target price of ₹2,360 per share, while its target for Reliance sits at ₹1,690.

Why the optimism on Airtel? The last tariff increase in July 2024 saw Airtel post the strongest ARPU growth among its peers, while Jio lagged because many of its value‑focused users downgraded plans. Airtel also managed to add about 2 % subscribers over the next three quarters, whereas Jio actually shed roughly 0.3 %.

Looking ahead, Nomura expects the FY28 EV/EBITDA multiple for Jio at 10.5‑10.9×, a shade below the Street’s 12× benchmark for both Jio and Airtel. For Airtel’s Indian business (net of Indus Towers, Airtel Africa and other investments) they calculate an implied FY28 EV/EBITDA of 9.2×, which is 12‑15 % cheaper than Jio’s multiple.

In short, the Jio listing could compress Reliance’s valuation a touch, but the bigger story might be the narrowing discount between Jio and Bharti Airtel. If the two firms truly converge in price, Airtel’s upside could be quite tempting for investors looking for a telecom play.