Jio IPO Price Band Cuts Reliance Valuation, While Bharti Airtel Looks Even More Attractive

Reliance Industries’ long‑awaited Jio Platforms IPO is shaping up to be a watershed moment for India’s telecom space. According to market chatter, the price band could land somewhere around ₹1,065 to ₹1,119 per share, which translates to an equity valuation of roughly ₹9.8‑₹10.3 lakh crore (about $101‑$107 billion).

That figure isn’t just a number on a spreadsheet – it actually knocks a noticeable chunk off the valuation that Nomura had been working with. The firm says the implied enterprise value, after accounting for FY26 net debt of about ₹1.4 lakh crore, sits at roughly ₹10.9‑₹11.4 lakh crore, or $113‑$118 billion. In plain English, that’s 11‑15 % lower than the $133 billion EV target Nomura had pencilled in earlier.

What does this mean for Reliance’s own shares? Nomura points out that the 66.4 % stake Reliance holds in Jio would be worth between ₹481‑₹506 per Reliance share – roughly 41‑43 % of the current market price. Slap on a typical 20 % holding‑company discount and you’re looking at ₹385‑₹405 per share, about a third of today’s price. Yet the broker argues that Reliance’s stock has already taken a steep hit (down 26 % YTD), so the lower valuation may already be baked in.

Switching gears, Nomura’s take on Bharti Airtel is far more upbeat. The brokerage calls Airtel’s valuation “attractive” and sticks with a Buy recommendation, setting a target price of ₹2,360 per share. In contrast, Reliance’s target is pegged at ₹1,690. The reasoning? Airtel is poised to ride tariff hikes better than Jio, thanks to a higher share of premium‑price subscribers who are less likely to downgrade or churn.

Evidence from the July 2024 tariff increase backs that claim. Airtel posted the strongest ARPU growth among its peers, while Jio’s numbers lagged, reflecting a wave of downgrades among its value‑focused customer base. Moreover, Airtel added about 2 % subscribers in the three quarters that followed, whereas Jio actually lost a smidge – roughly 0.3 %.

Looking ahead to FY28, Nomura estimates Jio’s implied EV/EBITDA multiple at 10.5‑10.9 ×, slightly below the street’s 12 × norm for both telecom giants. Airtel’s India business, after stripping out its overseas holdings, is valued at a market cap of about ₹9.5 lakh crore, implying an FY28 EV/EBITDA of 9.2 × – a modest discount to Jio’s multiple.

All said, the consensus is that once Jio lists, the real test will be whether it can sustain growth without the easy subscriber gains of the past. Until then, Nomura seems convinced that Airtel’s current pricing offers a better risk‑reward profile for investors looking at India’s telecom sector.