Festive Season Slump Hits India’s Smartphone Market

India’s once‑bustling festival‑shopping window – typically September to December – looks a lot quieter this year. The usual surge of eager buyers, spurred by deep‑discount promotions, is being undercut by a perfect storm of price hikes, shrinking discount bands and the looming launch of the new iPhone.

According to IDC data, exclusive to Moneycontrol, shipments are projected to fall between 25 % and 30 % in the third quarter and dip another 20 % in the fourth. That would trim the full‑year total to roughly 125‑128 million units, down sharply from last year’s 150 million‑plus.

“Festive season in India has always run on the promise of discounts and consumers have come to expect and wait for them,” says IDC analyst Upasna Joshi. “This year will look different. With average selling prices climbing across the board, we don’t expect festive promotions to fully offset the underlying demand weakness.”

The price pressure is coming from every corner. Samsung, Xiaomi, Vivo, OPPO, OnePlus and even newcomer Nothing have already nudged up their price tags across multiple tiers. Samsung alone rolled out its third hike this month. Industry insiders say the cumulative effect could see average prices rise by as much as 60 % – and in some cases double – before the festive sales window even opens.

Retailers are feeling the pinch too. The All India Mobile Retailers Association (AIMRA) reports that main‑line retail sales plunged 30‑40 % in late August and have slumped another 40‑50 % since September 1. “Many buyers are holding out for Dussehra, Durga Puja and Diwali offers before they part with their money,” notes AIMRA chairman Kailash Lakhyani.

Compounding the challenge is Apple’s upcoming iPhone release. Though Apple hasn’t hiked prices on older models, the brand’s historic practice of heavy festive discounts appears to be fading. “Consumers have grown used to waiting for steep iPhone discounts during the festive season and that isn’t likely to happen this year, with iPhones largely selling at MRP,” Joshi adds.

The new iPhone launch – slated for early September with sales kicking off around the 20th – will likely draw attention away from Android flagships just as retailers scramble to fill shelves. Counterpoint Research’s Tarun Pathak warns that “at least two price hikes before the festive season will make devices even more expensive,” a sentiment echoed by the dip in footfall during the inauspicious Pitru Paksha period in North India.

Segment‑wise, the outlook is uneven. IDC expects the sub‑$100 bucket to shrink more than 80 % this year, while the $100‑200 segment could slip 9‑10 % YoY. The $200‑400 range may see a modest single‑digit dip, but the $400‑600 tier is projected to grow double‑digit, and even the ultra‑premium $600‑plus segment should only see a low single‑digit decline.

In short, price‑sensitive buyers at the lower end are being squeezed out, whereas those eyeing higher‑end phones still have some room to breathe. October and November – the heart of the Dussehra and Diwali celebrations – will be the real test to see whether any last‑minute promos can revive the waning demand.