ESPN’s Week 2 FPI: Who’s Over‑Rated and Who’s Under‑Rated?

When the dust settles on the first week of college football, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) does its usual dance: a few spots up, a few spots down, and a lot of debate on the sidelines. The model, built on algorithms and tons of data, is supposed to be objective, but fans and analysts still argue about who’s been given a cushion and who’s been left out in the cold.

Let’s start with the obvious over‑rating. Michigan, fresh off a frantic 31‑28 win against Western Michigan, actually slipped a few places. That drop makes sense when you consider the Wolverines were lucky to survive, but the fall felt a little harsh to some fans who still see a storied program poised for a big season.

On the flip side, Penn State leapt two spots, nudging ahead of Michigan. After a solid opening night, the Nittany Lions earned a modest boost, and many think the model got it right – they’ve got the talent and schedule to push higher as the weeks go on.

Florida, after a blowout over FAU, essentially held steady. The Gators’ FPI number barely budged, which feels appropriate given their dominant performance, yet some analysts argue the model is being too conservative with an SEC powerhouse that could be a top‑10 threat.

Perhaps the most contentious move was Oklahoma’s placement at #11. After a 51‑0 demolition of UTEP, many expected the Sooners to climb higher, but the model kept them anchored. Critics say the computer still underestimates Oklahoma’s recruiting depth and coaching tweaks under the new staff.

Then there’s Iowa. The Hawkeyes put up a 40‑0 wall against their rival, but the FPI barely nudged them. A subtle hint that the model may be undervaluing a defense that’s been quietly improving all offseason.

Mid‑major surprise: Texas A&M’s blowout of Missouri State vaulted them into the top‑25, a move most fans welcomed. Their performance was convincing enough that the model finally gave them the credit they’ve been fighting for.

Finally, a quick note on the teams that slipped unexpectedly. Notre Notre Dame, after a comfortable win over Wisconsin, fell a spot – a tiny wobble that left many Irish supporters scratching their heads, wondering if the model overreacted to a single game’s margin.

Bottom line? The FPI is a useful guide, but it’s still a computer with its own blind spots. Week 2 will reveal whether these adjustments were spot‑on or if we’ll see more “too high, too low” moments as the season ramps up.