El Niño Drives Record‑Late Start to Atlantic Hurricane Season

It’s a strange feeling to watch the Atlantic’s hurricane calendar crawl past the halfway point and still not see a single hurricane. As of September 15, 2026 we’ve logged five named tropical storms, but none have managed to cross that dreaded threshold into hurricane strength. That, frankly, feels odd – it’s the latest first‑hurricane date on record, matching the September 11 milestones of 2002 and 2013.

Normally, the season’s peak rolls in around September 10, and NOAA’s historical averages say you’d have about four hurricanes by the 16th and a couple of major ones by the 19th. Instead, the ocean’s mood seems to be set by a very strong El Niño brewing in the Pacific.

What does El Niño actually do? It’s basically a warm‑water episode in the central and eastern Pacific, defined when sea‑surface temperatures sit more than 0.5 °C above normal for five straight three‑month periods. Right now, the weekly anomaly is hovering at a solid 2 °C – the benchmark NOAA uses to label an event “very strong.”

That warmth isn’t just a harmless temperature bump; it flips the script on tropical cyclone formation. In the Pacific, El Niño tends to crank up hurricane activity, but the Atlantic gets the short end of the stick. The opposite is true for La Niña, which cools the Pacific and tends to give the Atlantic a boost.

NOAA’s seasonal outlook reflects that dynamic. They’ve placed a 75 % chance that the Atlantic will see below‑average activity this year, forecasting somewhere between seven and 13 named storms, with only two to six of those likely to become hurricanes and perhaps zero to two reaching major status. By comparison, a typical season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

Meanwhile, the eastern Pacific is humming along. Its season stretches from May 15 to November 30, and with El Niño in full swing, NOAA expects an above‑average 15‑22 named storms. So far, 14 storms have already formed, four of which are hurricanes, and two – Genevieve and Karina – have been classified as major. There’s even a Category‑5 monster, Hurricane Lowell, that originated in the eastern Pacific before peaking in the central Pacific.

It’s worth noting that the last time we logged a “very strong” El Niño, the Pacific produced a record three Category‑4 hurricanes simultaneously. That gives us a hint that the Pacific could keep delivering storm after storm while the Atlantic stays eerily quiet.

All of this is a reminder that the climate’s teleconnections can be messy. While a warm Pacific can suppress Atlantic storms, it can also intensify Pacific ones, creating a kind of seesaw effect. For now, residents along the Atlantic coast can breathe a little easier, but they shouldn’t let their guard down – the season isn’t over yet, and the ocean’s mood can shift in a heartbeat.