Could the United States Pull One‑Third of Its Troops Out of Europe? Here’s What It Could Mean

In recent weeks, senior officials at the Pentagon have been quietly drafting plans that could see a sizable chunk of American troops leaving the European theater. The catalyst? A handful of NATO members have refused to let the United States launch air operations against Iran from their soil, prompting a sharp rebuke from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

Hegseth, who has been openly critical of Europe’s reluctance, told a NATO gathering in Brussels that the alliance must “move fast and irreversibly” toward a European‑led defence model. He called the denial of basing rights “shameful,” arguing it puts American service members at unnecessary risk.

What does a pull‑back actually look like? According to reports cited by NBC News, the Pentagon is weighing two broad scenarios. The first would trim roughly one‑third of the approximately 68,000 U.S. personnel stationed across the continent – primarily those based in Germany, Italy and Spain. The second, more drastic option, envisions a withdrawal of around 40,000 troops, along with a substantial slice of aircraft, naval vessels and weaponry.

There’s also talk of reshuffling forces from central and western Europe toward the alliance’s eastern flank, a move that would keep a sizable U.S. presence closer to Russia’s border while easing the burden on bases in the west.

The timeline is tight. Hegseth is expected to hand in a final recommendation by early November, and any decision would have to navigate a maze of diplomatic, logistical and political hurdles.

It’s not the first time Washington has scaled back. Last year, roughly half of the 2,000 U.S. soldiers stationed in Romania were pulled out, and a separate drawdown of about 5,000 troops from Germany is already under way. Those moves followed a public criticism of U.S. policy toward Iran by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and a brief flirtation with a much larger withdrawal that was reportedly blocked by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

What would a larger pull‑back mean for Europe? Analysts say it could dent the nuclear deterrence umbrella that the United States has provided for decades. Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund notes that while a full‑scale Russian attack on NATO is unlikely, Moscow would certainly interpret a shrinking U.S. footprint as a strategic advantage.

“The impact depends on where the troops go,” Lesser adds. “If the shift is from western Europe to the eastern flank, the immediate risk to Germany and France may be limited, especially as they accelerate their own defence spending.” Yet the loss of American rapid‑reaction capabilities would still be felt across the continent, potentially emboldening adversaries and unsettling allies.

U.S. politicians are already weighing in. Senators Roger Wicker and Rep. Mike Rogers warned that a hasty retreat could send the wrong signal to President Vladimir Putin, undermining the credibility of NATO as a whole.

Relations between Washington and many European capitals have soured in recent years, fueled by disputes over defence spending, trade tariffs and even territorial ambitions. Former President Trump repeatedly accused NATO allies of “free‑riding” on the U.S. burden, urging them to meet a 5 percent of GDP defence target – a figure still far beyond the current 2 percent baseline.

Adding to the friction, several European governments have openly opposed U.S. plans to strike Iran, citing legal and political concerns. Spain and Italy, in particular, have been vocal critics, complicating Washington’s strategic calculus.

In short, the question isn’t just whether the United States can pull one‑third of its troops out of Europe – it’s what that decision would signal to the rest of the world, and how it would reshape the security architecture that has underpinned the trans‑Atlantic alliance for more than seven decades.