Shota Imanaga's Late-Season Struggles: A Home Run Problem Threatens Cubs' Playoff Hopes and His Future

Oof. That's really the only word for it when you look at Shota Imanaga's last outing for the Chicago Cubs. On August 31, 2026, against the Cincinnati Reds, it was a rough one. He coughed up six runs on eight hits, including three agonizing home runs, all in just five innings of work. The culprits? Hector Rodriguez, Dain Myers, and Sal Stewart, each taking him deep. It leaves you wondering, doesn't it, what's really going on with the talented lefty as the season winds down?

It's not just a bad game, you see; it's a trend that's got everyone in Wrigleyville, and frankly, the entire league, raising an eyebrow. As of that fateful Reds game, Imanaga's season record stands at 8-10 with a 4.01 ERA over 27 starts, totaling around 150 innings. Now, those numbers alone might not scream 'crisis,' but here's the kicker: he's given up an alarming 33 home runs this season. That's the most in all of Major League Baseball. Think about it for a second. Thirty-three! He's also managed to surrender three or more home runs in six different games this year, setting an unenviable MLB record for a left-handed pitcher.

And if August is any indication, things aren't getting better. His ERA for the month ballooned to 5.96 over just 22.2 innings. It feels like we've seen this movie before, too. Since his big league debut in 2024, Imanaga has allowed 91 home runs in total, which, yes, is also a league-high. That's 27 in 2024, 31 in 2025, and now 33 and counting in 2026. The pattern is stark, almost relentless.

So, what's the deal? Many eyes, including those of folks like ESPN's Jesse Rogers and Bleacher Nation's Michael Cerami, point to an over-reliance on a low-90s four-seam fastball. When that pitch, which is meant to be his bread and butter, isn't absolutely pinpoint, it's getting tattooed. It's a tricky spot for any pitcher when your go-to pitch becomes your biggest vulnerability.

You have to admire Craig Counsell's steadfast public support. The Cubs manager has been quite vocal about Imanaga keeping his spot in the rotation, even after these rough patches. "His spot in the rotation is not in jeopardy," Counsell stated recently, trying to project confidence. Yet, even he can't ignore the elephant in the room, acknowledging the very real home run issue. It's a delicate balancing act for a manager, isn't it?

And speaking of high stakes, let's look at the Cubs themselves. They're locked in a fierce battle. While they're currently trailing the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central, they're tied with the Philadelphia Phillies at a respectable 70-60 for a Wild Card spot, even holding a tiebreaker advantage. Every game, every pitch, truly matters now. The team needs reliable arms, especially with the likes of Colin Rea struggling and Javier Assad pitching for Iowa, though he might be a viable alternative. Seiya Suzuki's recent surge has been a bright spot, but it needs consistent pitching to back it up.

This isn't Imanaga's first dance with uncertainty, either. After the 2025 season, the Cubs actually passed on a three-year, $57 million club option for him. Why? Performance decline and, yes, injury concerns played a role. Then, he turned down a $15 million player option for 2026. Ultimately, he accepted the Cubs' qualifying offer of a hefty $22,025,000 for the current season. This all means he's slated to be a free agent once this season wraps up, making his present struggles all the more impactful for his future earnings.

All these threads lead to one rather uncomfortable question as October looms: What exactly would Imanaga's role be, if any, on a potential postseason roster? Can a team heading into high-stakes playoff baseball afford a starter, or even a long reliever, who carries such a significant risk of giving up the long ball? It's a tough spot for everyone involved, a real crossroads moment for both the pitcher and the Chicago Cubs' championship aspirations.