Monsoon Trough Returns – Heavy Rains Set to Sweep Across Large Parts of India This Week

After several days of fickle drizzles and an almost eerie lull, the southwest monsoon is finally pulling its weight again. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) says the revival is driven by the return of the monsoon trough – a long, low‑pressure belt that normally shepherds rain‑laden clouds across the sub‑continent.

During the recent break, this trough had inched northwards, hugging the Himalayan foothills and leaving the plains unusually dry. Now it’s sliding back south, which means a broader swath of the country will feel the wet spell once more.

Adding to the mix is a fresh low‑pressure system simmering over the Bay of Bengal. It’s sucking in moisture from both the Bay and the Arabian Sea, feeding it inland. Upper‑air cyclonic circulations over northern, eastern and central India are also lining up, promising thunderstorms and scattered to heavy rain throughout the week.

Monday, July 20, looks to be one of the wettest days. IMD forecasts heavy to very heavy rain in Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir. Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Odisha, Jharkhand, Assam, Meghalaya, Kerala’s Konkan coast, Madhya Pradesh and several northeastern states are also on the radar for heavy showers.

The deluge doesn’t stop there. On July 21‑22, expect widespread rain over Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, West Bengal, Gujarat, the Konkan belt and other parts of central India as the monsoon pushes further inland.

Delhi‑NCR residents should brace for cloudy skies, frequent showers, gusty winds and a few thunderstorms. The temperature dip – a few degrees below normal – will be a welcome respite after the oppressive heat of the past few days.

Looking further into the week, heavy rain is likely to linger over parts of Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, Gujarat, Assam, Meghalaya and the northeastern region. The Konkan and adjoining western zones will stay active, while much of southern peninsular India may see lighter, more isolated rain patches.

IMD has issued a moderate flash‑flood warning for Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal, Uttarakhand, Assam, Meghalaya, Sikkim and the sub‑Himalayan areas of West Bengal. With many river basins already near capacity, even moderate downpours could trigger localized flooding, rapid runoff and water‑logging.

The recent dry spell was a textbook “break” monsoon phase – a period when the trough shifts northwards and low‑pressure formations over the Bay of Bengal thin out. Coupled with weaker moisture inflow from the Arabian Sea, it left large swathes of the plains well below normal rainfall.

According to the IMD’s seven‑day outlook, the rain will stay active across northern, eastern and central India at least until July 26. While intensity may ebb and flow, the overall picture points to a sustained revival of the monsoon after one of the season’s weakest stretches so far.