Escalation in Gaza and the West Bank Threatens Two‑State Outlook, Says Board of Peace Envoy

At a packed session of the Hili Forum in Abu Dhabi, Nickolay Mladenov – the United States‑backed Board of Peace’s high‑level representative for Gaza – sounded a stark warning. He said that the combination of a stalled cease‑fire in Gaza and an intensifying wave of violence in the West Bank is pushing the long‑standing two‑state solution into the realm of “practically impossible.”

“If Gaza continues on its present trajectory – or if we fail to put the comprehensive plan into practice – the window for a two‑state outcome will close,” Mladenov said, his tone a mixture of frustration and urgency. He noted that more than half of Gaza is now under direct Israeli army control, while the remainder is still dominated by Hamas. That split, he argued, eliminates any credible pathway to a political settlement.

The envoy also pointed to the West Bank, where the situation has deteriorated since Israel’s full‑scale war on Gaza began after the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks. Over 500,000 Israeli settlers live in what the international community deems illegal settlements, crowding a Palestinian population of roughly three million. “You have a volatile mix of occupation, settlement expansion and rising attacks on both sides,” he observed, “and that makes a negotiated outcome exceedingly hard to achieve.”

In July, Hamas agreed to a roadmap that called for the hand‑over of its weapons to a new Palestinian governing body, a process to be overseen by the International Stabilisation Force – a fledgling unit led by U.S. Major General Jasper Jeffers. Yet, as Mladenov reminded the audience, the plan’s success hinges on a broader “transitional governance” framework, the complete de‑commissioning of arms, and an eventual Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

Adding another layer to the diplomatic puzzle, U.S. envoy Jared Kushner, speaking in Kyiv, blamed Israel’s upcoming elections for a certain “irrationality” among Israeli leaders regarding Gaza. “We agree with them on the end state,” Kushner said, “but the electoral politics are muddying the waters and making it harder to move forward.” He warned that demilitarising Gaza would be “beyond your comprehension” and far from straightforward.

For many observers, Mladenov’s remarks underscore a growing sense of despair in the peace‑building community. The Board of Peace, formed under U.S. auspices to shepherd an October 2025 cease‑fire, now faces the grim reality that without rapid de‑escalation and a genuine political will on both sides, the two‑state vision may be slipping away forever.