Harry Enten’s Midterm Forecast: Democrats Poised for a Double‑House Victory

During the latest drop‑off of his podcast “The Enten Scale,” CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten let listeners in on what the numbers are saying about the 2026 midterms. He put the odds at roughly a 67% chance that the Democrats will walk away with both the House and the Senate.

That’s a big jump—about 15 percentage points—in just two months, Enten told his audience. The surge, he said, is driven largely by solid Democratic polling in places that were once thought to be safely Republican, such as Iowa, Alaska, Kansas and Michigan.

Meanwhile, the GOP’s top‑tier candidates seem to be wrestling with their own image problems. Take Texas Senate hopeful Ken Paxton, who is sitting at a net approval rating of minus‑16 points, a number that would make most campaigns panic.

Enten didn’t shy away from naming a familiar foe: former President Donald Trump. According to the analyst, Trump’s lingering unpopularity on issues ranging from immigration and trade to the economy and inflation is dragging the Republican brand down.

“I mean, these are awful,” Enten said, laughing lightly before adding, “These are atrocious numbers. These are the types of numbers on which Democratic waves are built.”

If the current polling holds, the Senate could end up looking like 54 Democrats to 46 Republicans—a clear tilt toward the blue party. The House, though not detailed in his brief, is expected to follow a similar pattern, according to his projection.

Enten’s full breakdown, complete with charts and a deeper dive into state‑by‑state trends, is available on the podcast episode released Sunday. Whether you agree with his take or not, the data certainly give the upcoming election a fresh sense of urgency.