CNN Data Analyst Warns: Trump’s ‘Atrocious Numbers’ Threaten GOP Midterm Chances

When Harry Enten, the resident data‑whiz at CNN, crunched the latest polls, his reaction was unmistakable – a sigh, a mutter of “ugh!” and a headline‑making claim that the numbers for former president Donald Trump are, in his words, “atrocious.”

At the moment, Trump is hovering in the low‑30s on approval – the poorest stretch of his post‑presidential career. For a party that’s scrambling to keep the House and Senate, those digits feel like a warning bell.

Enten, tossing together his spreadsheets, put the Democrats’ odds of flipping both chambers at roughly 67 percent – the “most likely scenario” he’s willing to call out. He points to a handful of swing states that could be the fulcrum: Iowa, Alaska, Michigan and even Kansas, which hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.

But it’s not just the big‑ticket races that are wobbling. The data show GOP candidates across the board are flailing. Ohio’s Sen. John Husted carries a net approval of –13, while Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton sits at –16, making him, according to Enten, “the least popular GOP Senate nominee of this century.” “Ugh! This is terrible,” Enten repeated, a mix of exasperation and genuine concern.

And then there’s the former president himself. Enten’s charts lay out Trump’s net ratings on everything from immigration to trade, and they’re all deep in the red. Inflation, in particular, is a nightmare – a staggering –56 net rating, the worst such figure in modern polling history. “What are we even talking about here?!” he exclaimed, underscoring how the numbers could fuel a Democratic wave.

The backstory? A war in Iran that Trump launched back in February has taken a toll on the American wallet. Energy prices have surged – gasoline now averages $4.35 a gallon, diesel $6.26 – while food costs are climbing across the board. Two‑thirds of respondents in a CNN/SSRS poll say Trump has made the economy worse, and many blame the Iran conflict for personal financial strain.

All of this feeds into the broader narrative of the 2026 midterms. Polls from Angus Reid show Democrats up 16 points on the generic congressional ballot – the biggest lead recorded this cycle – with other trackers pointing to a 9‑point edge. If the trend holds, Republicans could lose the House and maybe even the Senate.

Enten’s Senate projections paint a dramatic shift: Democrats could win 54 seats versus 46 for Republicans, picking up traditionally red strongholds like Maine, Ohio, Kansas, Texas, Alaska and North Carolina.

The Republican National Committee’s national press secretary, Natalie Baldassarre, brushed off the analysis, accusing CNN of “shoddy reporting” and “anti‑Trump narrative.” But the numbers, as Enten and his team keep reminding us, are hard to ignore.

Whether the GOP can reverse the tide before November remains to be seen, but the data‑driven alarm bells are certainly ringing loud and clear.