Will the Houthi Red Sea attacks destabilise Yemen’s fragile peace?

After the recent Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, analysts believe the Yemeni group's increased domestic recruitment and mobilization might pose a threat to potential ceasefire efforts in Yemen. They suggest these attacks have led to a resurgence in the group's popularity, which had dipped in recent months. However, the group's bolstered activities and tension escalation could destabilize the creeping peace in Yemen, where ceasefire discussions seem to be making headway, following a 10-year conflict.

The Houthis argue that their attacks on vessels connected to or affiliated with Israel in the Red Sea aim at pressing Israel to cease its destructive war in Gaza, which has culminated in the loss of over 22,000 lives since October 7. This has reportedly garnered support among many Yemenis. The group, also known as Ansar Allah, organized a rally supporting Gaza, drawing millions of Yemenis, according to a Houthi-affiliated media outlet, despite continued missiles and drone attacks in the Red Sea.

This increasing tension in the maritime route has led to several international shipping companies deciding to bypass the Red Sea and navigate around Africa's southern coast, elongating their journey by nine days and escalating their costs by a minimum of 15%. Maersk, the Danish shipping titan, publicly declared its decision to avoid the Red Sea indefinitely.

Regardless of the Operation Prosperity Guardian, established by the US to deter the Houthis from attacking commercial vessels navigating the Bab al Mandeb Strait, the Houthis remain defiant. In response to their continued attacks, the US and its allies issued a stern warning to the Houthis to discontinue their assaults. Nonetheless, their defiance was seen at a recent rally, where they expressed preparedness for any military escalation from the US.

The attacks in the Red Sea have led to a surge in recruitment for the Houthi group, which had previously been struggling to draw recruits and pay salaries. This boost in recruitment allowed the group to graduate more than 20,000 new fighters. Yet, despite significant strides in peace talks and a truce implemented in 2022, analysts suggest that the Houthis' actions might throw off any eventual resolution.

There are concerns that the ceasefire might be jeopardized if the Houthis decide to embark on a new domestic assault, as was the case with their offensive in Marib in 2021. Recently, the Houthis have capitalized on their increased recruitment by stationing 50,000 troops around Marib, leading to fears of renewed conflict. If the situation escalates further, the brief period of tranquility in Yemen could be short-lived, with potential confrontations looming both domestically and regionally.