Many ideas, but little agreement, over what a postwar Gaza could look like
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- January 06, 2024
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A lady was photographed in her destroyed residence in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, following an Israeli attack amidst ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group, Hamas. The image published on Friday reopened discussions, both locally and internationally, about the possible postwar governance in Gaza, a topic often referred to as the "day after" scenario.
Israeli officials have presented various proposals this week, many of which, backed by the United States, insist that Hamas should not govern Gaza due to its harmful October 7 assault on Israel that claimed 1,200 lives and resulted in several kidnappings. However, opinions vary on who should maintain administrative control over Gaza and the extent of Israel's involvement in the territory.
Two conservative Israeli ministers recently proposed the relocation of Palestinians from Gaza and the construction of Israeli settlements. This sparked global backlash, including criticism from the U.S. State Department. Israel's more conciliatory defense minister, Yoav Gallant, offered his perspective on governing postwar Gaza, calling for Palestinian governance albeit with the freedom for Israeli military operations. He refrained from detailed specifics regarding what a Palestinian-led government might look like, simply suggesting it should be spearheaded by "non-hostile local actors".
The Biden administration previously suggested that the Palestinian Authority, currently overseeing the West Bank, should gain control over Gaza. However, both the Authority and its President, Mahmoud Abbas, are largely unpopular among Palestinians. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also expressed disapproval of this suggestion.
Recent polling data showed that around 40% of Gaza's residents preferred a government involving the Palestinian Authority postwar, slightly outnumbering those favoring Hamas. Yet neither preference had majority support.
The past week also saw Israeli ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich propose that Palestinians "migrate voluntarily" from Gaza, and supported the creation of Israeli settlements in the region. This stimulated an international uproar which resulted in a rare rebuke from the U.S. State Department. They vehemently rejected the controversial statements, calling them incendiary and irresponsible and urged an immediate end to such discourse.
The European Union’s chief foreign policy official, Josep Borrell, joined in the criticism, declaring that forced displacements are considered serious violations of international humanitarian law.
Crucial to the "day after" scenario, the huge reconstruction effort of Gaza poses a challenge. Half of the buildings in Gaza have been damaged or demolished by the Israeli strikes, according to satellite imagery. Assistance for reconstruction is expected to come from Gulf countries rich in oil reserves. Gallant has called for the creation of a multinational task force, guided by the U.S. along with European and regional allies, to oversee the rebuilding effort. Likewise, U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham suggested the revival of a potential Saudi-Israeli normalisation agreement that could see the Saudis participating in Gaza's reconstruction.