Where the Campus Meets the Crisis: Oak Bay's Future Rests on UVic's Unfolding Landscape

Oak Bay. Ah, yes, the very name conjures images of tranquil streets, stately homes, and a kind of timeless charm, doesn't it? But beneath that perfectly manicured surface, a quiet, almost imperceptible shift is happening. The district, renowned for its quaint village feel and expansive waterfront, finds itself at a peculiar crossroads, facing a future that's, well, shrinking. You see, the population is actually declining, and honestly, housing—diverse, affordable housing—is becoming an increasingly pressing concern.

It’s a curious paradox, really. Here’s a place people adore, yet its very character, its resistance to change, is starting to pinch. The numbers from the Capital Regional District (CRD) are stark: Oak Bay needs to find space for nearly 2,300 new homes by 2046. And how, precisely, do you do that in a municipality that’s, for all intents and purposes, entirely built out? Where do you even begin to look for significant tracts of developable land when every square inch seems accounted for, beloved, or both?

This is where the University of Victoria (UVic) enters the conversation, not just as an academic institution, but as a surprising, perhaps even reluctant, key player in Oak Bay’s urban puzzle. UVic, a sprawling campus with its own pressing needs, holds vast swathes of land, much of it within Oak Bay’s municipal boundaries. And here’s the kicker: some of these lands, particularly the 14-hectare Cunningham property—the old Dominion Astrophysical Observatory lands, if you remember them—and the 32-hectare Queenswood property, are currently lying mostly dormant, quietly waiting.

These properties, while mostly outside the designated Urban Containment Boundary for now, are explicitly flagged as 'potential growth areas' in the CRD's larger regional strategy. The Cunningham property, for example, is zoned 'institutional,' but with some thoughtful planning, some imagination, it could theoretically house up to 3,500 people. That's not just a number; it's a potential community. And UVic itself? It desperately needs more student and faculty housing, projecting a need for another 1,800 beds by 2040. It’s a genuine struggle for them to house their own.

So, you have Oak Bay, land-starved and facing a demographic slide, alongside UVic, land-rich but housing-poor, both looking at these properties. It almost sounds too perfect, doesn’t it? A partnership, a real collaboration, could be the answer. Imagine a scenario where UVic develops some of these lands not just for its own students and staff, but in concert with Oak Bay, providing a diverse mix of housing types that the district so desperately lacks. It could be townhouses, smaller apartments, homes suitable for young families or seniors looking to downsize—options that aren’t just the sprawling, expensive single-family residences that currently dominate the market.

Of course, this isn't some simple 'build it and they will come' scenario. Oak Bay has a long, storied history of resisting development, of fiercely protecting its cherished character. Concerns about traffic, infrastructure, and just the sheer idea of more density have always been, shall we say, vocal. But, and this is a big 'but,' there's a new council in town, a fresh perspective that might just be more open to genuine dialogue, to finding common ground. The CRD’s firm housing targets, honestly, are pushing the envelope for everyone, forcing some uncomfortable but necessary conversations.

What's truly exciting about this potential is the chance for a truly integrated community. A UVic Neighbourhood Plan, a thoughtful framework, could ensure that any development isn’t just tacked on, but woven into the existing fabric, enhancing rather than detracting. It’s a chance to build something sustainable, something diverse, something that caters to the actual needs of a community rather than just clinging to an idealized, perhaps outdated, vision. And in truth, for once, the future of this charming, historic district might just hinge on looking beyond its traditional borders, and embracing a partner right next door.