Vancouver's Housing Market Hits the Brakes: Sales Slow Amid Rising Rates

After a bustling spring and summer that saw a resurgence in buyer activity, Vancouver's dynamic housing market hit a noticeable speed bump in September. The city, known for its red-hot real estate, experienced a significant dip in home sales, signaling a clear shift in momentum as higher borrowing costs began to truly take their toll on prospective buyers.

The latest figures from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) paint a vivid picture: a total of 1,903 residential properties changed hands in September.

While this marked a modest 9.5 per cent increase compared to the unusually subdued sales of September 2022, it represented a stark 13.1 per cent drop from the August 2023 figures. This month-over-month decline underscores a market grappling with the new reality of elevated interest rates, which have consistently risen over the past year and a half.

Andrew Lis, Director of Economics and Data Analytics at the REBGV, articulated the sentiment well, noting, "After a brief but decisive surge in sales activity this spring and summer, the market took a breather in September." He emphasized that the primary driver behind this deceleration wasn't a lack of interest, but rather the cumulative effect of the Bank of Canada's aggressive rate hikes.

With each increase, the cost of borrowing has become more substantial, forcing many potential buyers to re-evaluate their purchasing power and, in some cases, to sit on the sidelines.

Interestingly, while sales slowed, the number of new listings coming onto the market saw a notable uptick. September recorded 4,149 new residential properties listed for sale, a substantial 19.5 per cent increase from August and a 20.3 per cent surge year-over-year.

This influx of properties could offer some much-needed relief to buyers, potentially easing the intense competition seen earlier in the year. However, despite this increase, the overall inventory of homes remains stubbornly low, keeping supply-demand dynamics tight in many segments.

Despite the cooling sales, the benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver continued its upward trajectory, reaching $1,208,600.

This represents a 4.4 per cent increase over September 2022 and a marginal 0.2 per cent rise from August 2023. While detached homes saw a slight month-over-month dip of 0.7 per cent, their benchmark price still stands at a robust $2,056,200. Townhomes and apartments, meanwhile, registered modest gains, reflecting varied pressures across different housing types.

The prevailing sentiment among economists suggests that this slower pace of activity is likely to persist.

Robert Hogue, Assistant Chief Economist at Royal Bank of Canada, highlighted that the recent jump in long-term bond yields, which directly influences fixed mortgage rates, is contributing to affordability challenges. He anticipates that the Bank of Canada will hold its policy rate steady for the remainder of the year, but the impact of past hikes will continue to ripple through the market, maintaining a cooler environment.

This shift marks a return to more balanced conditions, moving away from the frenzied pace that characterized the market for much of the pandemic era.

In essence, Vancouver's housing market is navigating a period of adjustment. While the days of rampant bidding wars and soaring sales might be temporarily on hold, the underlying demand and the persistent low inventory suggest that prices, while stabilizing, are unlikely to plummet.

Buyers and sellers alike are recalibrating their expectations in a market dictated by the new economics of higher borrowing costs, settling into a rhythm that feels decidedly more measured than the recent past.