Pentagon Bars Service Members From Betting on Prediction Markets With Insider Info

Washington – In a surprisingly blunt memo that landed on service members’ inboxes this week, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told troops they may not use any kind of non‑public information to place bets on prediction markets. The one‑page directive, dated Tuesday, warns that even seemingly harmless financial bets can become a beacon for hostile eyes.

“Our enemies watch movements in these markets,” Hegseth wrote. He explained that when a soldier, an intelligence analyst, or a civilian Department employee trades on a future military event, they generate a signal that adversaries can track. The memo makes it crystal clear: both classified data and unclassified but non‑public intel are off‑limits for platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, or any similar site.

Violations won’t just be a slap on the wrist. The memo says offenders could face administrative discipline, criminal charges under the Uniform Code of Military Justice, or even federal prosecution. As Hegseth put it, “Financial stakes can warp judgment.” A logistician who has money riding on a strike date might, even unintentionally, nudge that date forward. An analyst with a position on an outcome could subconsciously bias their assessment.

The policy comes on the heels of a high‑profile case that put the issue front and center. In April, Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a 38‑year‑old Special Forces member, was charged with using his access to place a string of bets totaling more than $32,500 on when Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro might be ousted. Federal prosecutors say most of those wagers were made in the narrow window just hours before missiles were slated to hit Caracas – a timing that raised eyebrows and ultimately led to the indictment.

Van Dyke’s case isn’t an isolated quirk. Earlier this year, a cluster of new accounts on Polymarket placed razor‑sharp bets on whether the United States and Iran would reach a cease‑fire, cashing in just before President Donald Trump announced the deal. The White House, alarmed by the coincidence, warned staff not to trade on private intel. Similarly, prediction‑market startup Kalshi recently suspended three congressional candidates after discovering they had wagered on the outcomes of their own elections.

When pressed for comment, a Pentagon spokesperson said the department had no further details to add beyond the memo itself. The message, however, is unmistakable: the military is drawing a firm line in the sand, hoping to deny adversaries any extra data points and to keep service members’ judgment unclouded by the lure of quick cash.