Pac 12 MBB power ratings: Arizona on top despite ugly loss while Utah and Colorado complete home sweeps
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- January 02, 2024
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We’ll start the new year with an old topic — one that plays an essential role in determining the NCAA Tournament field and seeds. Yes, it’s time for our annual NET rankings refresher. By the , the NET rankings serve as “the primary sorting tool for Division I men’s basketball” and “play an important role in establishing a team’s resume.” It is the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) in every sense.
The rankings not only consider winning percentage — the foundational metric in the RPI (Rating Percentage Index) — but a slew of other factors, including “game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses.” The “quality” piece is based on the NCAA’s quadrant system, which places each game on one of four tiers based on location and the opponent’s NET ranking.
Because it’s easier to win at home, the quadrant system is weighted: Beat the No. 75 team in the NET rankings at home, and it counts as a Quad 2 victory; but beat the No. 75 team on the road, and it’s a Quad 1 win. Home (vs.) 1 30, Neutral 1 50, Away 1 75 Home 31 75, Neutral 51 100, Away 76 135 Home 76 160, Neutral 101 200, Away 135 240 Home 161 353, Neutral 201 353, Away 241 353 In building a resume worthy of March Madness, the goal isn’t merely to collect as many quality wins as possible.
It’s also to avoid bad losses. Or as the NCAA frames the situation: “The number of Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 3/4 losses will be incredibly important when it comes time for NCAA Tournament selection and seeding.” And in the Pac 12, there are more opportunities for bad losses than quality wins.
To the power ratings … ( ) 1. Arizona (10 3/1 1) won at Cal 100 81, lost at Stanford 100 82 No. 4 vs. Colorado (Thursday) The Wildcats have lost three of their past five and were beaten soundly by a .500 team (Stanford) — yet we never considered removing them from the top spot. That speaks to both Arizona’s impressive body of work and to the lack of a viable alternative.
2. Utah (11 2/2 0) beat Washington State 80 58 and Washington 95 90 No. 16 at Arizona State (Thursday) Splits at home against the Washington schools don’t get you into the NCAAs. The Utes needed a sweep and found a way to secure it, thanks to Branden Carlson. 3. Colorado (11 2/2 0) beat Washington 73 69 and WSU 74 67 No.
30 at Arizona (Thursday) Everything from the way they’re built to coach Tad Boyle’s preferred style of play suggests a load of 70 something to 60 something victories in CU’s immediate future. 4. Oregon (10 3/2 0) beat USC 82 74 and UCLA 64 59 No. 71 at Washington (Thursday) The heavy reliance on two talented freshmen, guard Jackson Shelstad and forward Kwame Evans Jr., creates a high ceiling for the Ducks and, perhaps, a low floor.
5. UCLA (6 7/1 1) won at Oregon State 69 62, lost at Oregon 64 59 No. 144 vs. Stanford (Wednesday) The last time the Bruins were under .500 when the calendar turned? That would be the winter of 2009 10, when the Ben Howland era turned for the worse. 6. Arizona State (8 5/2 0) won at Stanford 76 73 and Cal 71 69 No.
124 vs. Utah (Thursday) News from the near future, possibly: Arizona State completes its final season in the Pac 12 with all 20 of its conference games decided by three points or less. 7. Washington (8 5/0 2) lost at Colorado 73 69 and Utah 95 90 No. 57 vs. Oregon (Thursday) The Hotline attempts to treat potential coaching changes with the appropriate level of gravity, so we have not officially begun the Mike Hopkins Watch.
And honestly, that step could be many, many weeks away (if it comes at all). Related Articles 8. Stanford (6 6/1 1) lost to ASU 76 73, beat Arizona 100 82 No. 117 at UCLA (Wednesday) The Cardinal jumped 39 spots in the NET with the upset of Arizona. That said, it has a long way to go for NCAA Tournament consideration and plenty of opportunities to slide back given all the low NET rankings across the conference.
9. Oregon State (9 4/1 1) lost to UCLA 69 62, beat USC 86 70 No. 190 at WSU (Thursday) Not on our Beavers bingo card for the 2023 24 season: Tyler Bilodeau as one of the most improved players in the conference. But if the sophomore forward keeps this up, OSU just might reach an acceptable level of performance.
10. Washington State (9 4/0 2) lost at Utah 80 58 and Colorado 74 67 No. 55 vs. Oregon State (Thursday) Sometimes, the NET is a mystery wrapped in a riddle wrapped in an algorithm. WSU’s current (solid) position is one of those instances given a non conference schedule that was littered with cream puffs.
11. USC (6 7/0 2) lost at Oregon 82 74 and Oregon State 86 70 No. 91 vs. Cal (Wednesday) The struggling Trojans were beaten soundly in Corvallis to finish a wasted weekend and here’s the headline that appeared on ESPN’s main college basketball site: “Bronny shines with highlight jam, season best 15.” Welcome to your life, USC.
12. Cal (4 9/0 2) lost to Arizona 100 81 and ASU 71 69 No. 229 at USC (Wednesday) Among the many items on coach Mark Madsen’s to do list: Generate bench production from someone other than Grant Newell. One dependable reserve simply won’t cut it..