India's Faltering Foothold: How Missteps Paved China's Path into Nepal's Heart

For too long, India has viewed Nepal as merely 'another neighbour,' a critical miscalculation that has opened the door for China to assert its dominance in a strategically vital Himalayan nation. This is the stark warning issued by prominent strategic affairs expert Brahma Chellaney, whose insights underscore a concerning trend of India's policy vacillations ceding ground to Beijing's relentless geopolitical expansion.

Chellaney argues passionately that Nepal's significance to India transcends simple geography; it is a nation intrinsically linked by an open border, deep cultural ties, and profound security implications.

This unique relationship demands a far more nuanced and proactive approach than India has historically demonstrated. Its proximity to the Tibetan Autonomous Region makes Nepal a crucial buffer, and any shift in its alignment has significant ramifications for India's northern frontiers.

According to Chellaney, India's missteps have been manifold.

A perception of New Delhi's 'big brother' attitude, coupled with instances of perceived interference and economic blockades, has fostered resentment within Nepal. This has inadvertently created fertile ground for China, which has capitalised on these grievances with a sophisticated, multi-pronged strategy.

Beijing's approach is a masterclass in 'soft power' and economic leverage: pouring vast sums into infrastructure projects like roads, railways, and airports, alongside cultural exchange programmes and diplomatic overtures. The goal is clear: to inextricably link Nepal's economic future and strategic alignment with China.

The consequences of India's reactive rather than proactive policy are becoming increasingly evident.

While India has focused on traditional bilateral ties, China has systematically integrated Nepal into its Belt and Road Initiative, promising economic prosperity and connectivity. This has led to a noticeable shift in Nepal's foreign policy calculus, with Kathmandu increasingly balancing its relations between its two powerful neighbours, often to India's detriment.

Chellaney's analysis serves as a wake-up call, urging India to fundamentally reassess its Nepal strategy.

He advocates for a more engaged, empathetic, and forward-looking policy that respects Nepal's sovereignty while reinforcing the shared cultural and strategic interests. Without a renewed commitment and a cohesive strategy to counter China's growing inroads, India risks losing its historical influence in a region critical to its long-term security and geopolitical standing.

The current trajectory suggests that if India continues its 'business as usual' approach, the Himalayan nation, once firmly within India's strategic orbit, could progressively drift into China's sphere of influence, presenting a complex and enduring challenge to India's regional leadership.