World’s Capacity For Renewable Energy Will Likely Fall Short Of COP28 Target By 2030, Report Suggests

Topline Global renewable energy capacity is expected to more than double by the end of this decade—with record growth expected in the next five years—but governments will need to go further to achieve goals set at the COP28 U.N. climate conference in December, the International Energy Agency said Thursday.

According to the IEA, solar and wind energy are expected to account for 95% of the growth renewables ... [+] over the next five years. Key Facts In its annual report on renewables, the IEA said 510 gigawatts of additional capacity was added in 2023—a 50% higher increase on 2022. Solar energy was the biggest driver of growth in 2023, mostly driven by China, whose increase in solar capacity for the year matched overall global capacity growth in 2022.

The agency forecasts renewable energy capacity will grow to 7,300 gigawatts by 2028, with 95% of the growth coming from solar and wind energy. On this trajectory, the world’s renewable energy capacity should increase by around two and a half times the current level by 2030—falling short of the goal of tripling capacity as per a COP28 agreement.

The IEA’s report calls on governments to adopt policies to accelerate renewable energy growth and target 11,000 gigawatts of renewable capacity by 2030, to ensure a global net zero emissions target is reached by 2050. Insufficient funding for emerging and developing economies is hindering targets to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.

Surprising Fact According to the IEA’s projections, renewables will replace coal to become the largest source of electricity generation around the world in 2025. Wind and solar are predicted to overtake nuclear power generation in 2025 and 2026, respectively. Big Number 60%. That is the share of global renewable energy capacity that China is expected to account for by 2028, based on current projections.

Key Background The COP28 U.N. climate summit ended last month with an agreement signed by 198 countries calling for a transition away from fossil fuels to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. The final agreement stopped short of calling for a “phase out” of oil and gas usage—supported by 100 countries including the U.S., Canada and the European Union—due to fierce pushback from the Saudi Arabia led OPEC bloc of oil producing nations.

Tripling global renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency improvements by 2030 were key targets agreed at the summit. The push for cleaner energy is likely to ramp up after EU scientists confirmed Tuesday that 2023 was the hottest year on record, following a U.N. forecast from November.

Tangent The IEA said last year the world may have hit “ peak coal ” demand in 2023, as consumption of the world’s dirtiest fossil fuel is expected to slowly decline going forward. Oil use is expected to peak by the end of the decade the IEA said last June. Section Title 2023 Was Officially The World’s Hottest Year On Record (Forbes) COP28: Climate Summit Strikes ‘Historic’ Global Deal To Transition Away From Fossil Fuels (Forbes).