Will BJP upset applecart of BJD, Congress in Rajgangpur?

ROURKELA: The Rajgangpur Assembly constituency of Sundargarh district is likely to witness a triangular contest with a possibility of BJP upsetting the applecart of the ruling BJD and Congress. The BJP used to be relegated to third place in the constituency with a paltry share of votes ranging between 16,000 and 28,000.

But in 2019, the party almost doubled its vote share with the BJD and Congress believing that the Modi wave worked in favour of the saffron party. With around 2.25 lakh registered voters, Rajgangpur is a Scheduled Tribe (ST) seat. While BJD’s Mangla Kisan has pocketed the seat five times since 1985, the Congress has won it thrice.

In the 2019 election, Dr CS Razzen Ekka emerged victorious from Rajgangpur. If reliable sources are to be believed, the constituency has 34,000 to 36,000 tribal Christian voters and over 50 per cent of them traditionally vote for the Congress while BJD gets a majority of the remaining chunk followed by other parties except the BJP.

The BJP’s traditional mainstay are Kisan and Oram tribes which have around one lakh voters. Other tribes including Kharia, Munda, Badaik, etc and the Scheduled Castes account for 25,000 votes which are divided. Similarly, around 14,000 15,000 Muslim voters in the constituency tilt towards the party that has the best chance to defeat BJP.There are around 50,000 general category voters of different linguistic origins in Rajgangpur town where Hindutva is a dominating factor for the Hindi speaking population.

Political observers say in 2019, Ekka of Congress secured 53,918 votes and won with a slender margin of 946 votes over BJD veteran Kisan who pocketed 52,972 votes. Surprisingly, BJP’s Narsingh Minz secured 52,896 votes with the party witnessing a jump of 12.42 per cent in its vote share. In 2014, the BJP had secured an all time high of 28,694 votes.

Against the backdrop of the thumping victory in rural and Rajgangpur municipality polls, winning Rajgangpur should be a cakewalk for BJD’s Kisan. But a swing of fortunes cannot be ruled out. Ekka is up against anti incumbency and retaining the seat will be a challenge for him. In 2019, tribal leader George Tirkey as the Congress candidate for the Sundargarh Lok Sabha seat enabled consolidation of Christian votes in favour of Congress which ultimately helped Ekka.

With Tirkey quitting Congress, a split in Christian votes is inevitable. BJP insiders say with a consensus candidate and united fight, the party may throw up a surprise victory. BJD too is not taking BJP threats lightly. BJD sources said in 2019, the Balakot air strike and Prime Minister Narendra Modi wave exponentially increased BJP’s vote share in Rajgangpur.

In 2024, the inauguration of the Ram Temple at Ayodhya and the rising international stature of PM Modi would influence voters. A close aide of Kisan and senior BJD leader Jitendra Das said despite advantages, the BJD has no complacency and is continuing its hard work to secure a victory..