When 'No Surprise' Becomes a Geopolitical Truism: The Unraveling of Afghan-Pakistan Talks

It seems, at least from certain vantage points, that some geopolitical outcomes are less surprises and more… well, inevitabilities. Take the recent collapse of talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan’s interim government, the Taliban. For many, it might have felt like a sudden breakdown, a diplomatic dead end. But for keen observers, especially someone like US analyst Michael Rubin, it was, quite frankly, no surprise at all. And in truth, when you delve into the messy, often contradictory logic at play, you begin to understand why.

Rubin, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, articulated this perspective, suggesting that anyone expecting a different outcome was perhaps, shall we say, a tad optimistic. His argument? The Taliban has historically—and quite effectively, one might add—leveraged the very instability it helps to foster. It’s a classic move, isn’t it? Keep the pot simmering just enough to gain an advantage.

The core of the issue, and what Rubin points to so clearly, revolves around the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a group that Pakistan desperately wants reined in. But here’s the rub: for the Afghan Taliban, the TTP isn't a problem to be solved; it’s a tool. It’s a lever. A source of, dare we say, influence over their Pakistani neighbors. This isn’t about shared brotherhood in the eyes of the Afghan Taliban, not really. It’s about power, plain and simple.

You see, the Taliban's playbook is, in its own way, brutally rational. An unstable border, especially with Pakistan, offers several benefits. Firstly, it allows them to continue demanding concessions, playing the part of the reluctant negotiator. Secondly, and perhaps more cynically, it keeps various factions, including the TTP, somewhat dependent on them, granting a degree of control or at least strategic utility. And let’s not forget the economic angle: controlling border crossings, regardless of who's moving through them, can be a rather lucrative venture.

For Pakistan, of course, this situation is nothing short of a headache, a recurring nightmare even. The resurgence of TTP activities poses a genuine internal security threat, disrupting peace and costing lives. And for once, there’s a certain tragic irony to it all, isn’t there? Pakistan had, for years, extended its support to the Afghan Taliban, nurturing what it saw as a strategic asset. Now, that very asset seems to have turned around, using its leverage—and the very tactics Pakistan helped hone—against its erstwhile patron. It’s a bitter pill to swallow, one would imagine.

So, when the talks falter, when the promises dissolve, it’s not because of a sudden diplomatic misstep or a breakdown in communication. It’s because the Afghan Taliban’s interests, as interpreted by Rubin, are best served by the very tensions these talks aim to resolve. Why give up a valuable bargaining chip, especially one that demands little from you and offers so much in return? It’s a harsh reality, perhaps, but one that defines the treacherous landscape of regional power dynamics, reminding us that in geopolitics, sometimes, the 'surprise' is truly no surprise at all.