Weather Alert: Winter Weather Advisory now in effect, freeze line moving toward Houston

We've got an ABC13 Weather Alert out now through noon Wednesday as freezing rain settles in overnight and a hard freeze follows Monday and Tuesday nights. A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect until 6 p.m. Monday for most of southeast Texas, with the exception of some coastal counties. Showers bringing rain, freezing rain/drizzle, and even sleet could lead to minor ice accumulations up to a tenth of an inch overnight and MLK Day.

Icy surfaces and slick spots on roads are expected where the light rain and drizzle occur and temperature are below freezing. Please check on road conditions before you travel around on Monday. A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect Monday from midnight to 9 a.m. for counties north and west of Houston. Wind chill values as low as 10 degrees are possible Monday morning.

Monday (MLK Day) is an ABC13 Weather Alert Day due to the possibility of freezing rain in southeast Texas, and Tuesday is an ABC13 Weather Alert Day due to the possibility of frozen roadways from any freezing rain plus the potential for a pipe bursting hard freeze in the upper teens and low 20s. Factor in the wind, and it will feel like it's in the single digits and teens.

Another hard freeze is likely on Wednesday morning, with temperatures again dipping down into the teens and low 20s, but this time the wind will be minimal. Everyone should be above freezing by noon on Wednesday, which will mark the end of the arctic cold snap. It will be bitterly cold, with temperatures in the 20s and 30s across all of Southeast Texas.

The freeze line will gradually settle into Houston, increasing the chance of light freezing rain and freezing drizzle in the Bayou City. Freezing rain is more likely north and west of Houston where it will already be below freezing. Light rain showers and drizzle will overlap with the freeze line, and up to a tenth of an inch of freezing rain is possible north of the freeze line.

It will be a close call for Houston, so keep your guard up just in case and check on road conditions before you head out if you must travel. If the freeze line does not push through Houston during the day, it will do so Monday night, but by the evening most of the precipitation will have come to an end.

To see when the freeze line is expected to reach your location, watch the forecast video above. The temperature a few thousand feet above ground is expected to stay well above freezing. This would mean any precipitation that forms would start as rain, but as it falls into colder air near the ground that is below freezing, it could freeze on contact with anything it touches.

Accumulations would initially occur on things surrounded by cold air, like tree branches, power lines, bridges, and overpasses. If the cold layer of rain below freezing comes in thicker than we're expecting, ice pellets are possible. A changeover to snow looks unlikely here at this time. Because we expect the freeze line to push through Houston Monday night, if we do not warm above freezing on Tuesday, we could spend 36 hours below freezing.

If Houston gets above freezing on Tuesday, then we'll have two stretches of 18 20 hours below freezing on Monday night and Tuesday night. Those who are north of the freeze line already on Sunday could spend up to 60 hours below freezing. At this time it does look like most of us warm just above freezing for a few hours on Tuesday.

At this time, we are forecasting the coldest lows in Houston on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings at 24 degrees and 22 degrees, respectively. It is possible lows could get a few degrees colder than that, and it will certainly be colder for locations outside and north of Houston. Tuesday morning will feel the coldest, with wind chill readings in the single digits and teens.

That's what the north wind at 25 mph will make it feel like to exposed skin. To see how cold it will get where you live on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, watch the forecast video above. No. The polar vortex is not coming to Texas, but it is responsible for helping to push this cold arctic air down south from Canada.

This will NOT be a repeat of the weather in February 2021. We had multiple rounds of statewide snow, ice, and freezing rain during that event, and the below freezing temperatures lasted an entire week across large parts of the state. When the arctic front first blew in, the entire state of Texas was under a Winter Storm Warning, and that initial round of snow and ice, along with the frigid air, took down the power grid.

Houston's low got all the way down to 13 at its coldest point that week, and the day before that frigid reading, the temperature did not warm above 25 degrees. Send it to ABC13 using the form below. If you have a video or photo to send, If you don't, just hit 'skip upload' and send the details..