Unpacking the Agenda: What's on the Table for Taliban FM Muttaqi's Potential India Visit?

The news of a potential visit by Afghanistan's acting Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, to India has sent ripples through diplomatic circles, signaling a complex and cautious engagement between New Delhi and the Taliban-led administration in Kabul. This isn't merely a courtesy call; it's anticipated to be a substantive dialogue addressing critical issues that span counter-terrorism, economic cooperation, and Afghanistan’s quest for international recognition.

At the heart of India's concerns remains the persistent threat of terrorism emanating from Afghan soil.

Despite the Taliban's repeated assurances, India is keenly aware of the presence of various terror outfits, including Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), and the Islamic State's Khorasan Province (ISKP/Daesh), operating within Afghanistan. Any high-level engagement will undoubtedly feature robust discussions on how the Taliban intends to fulfill its commitments to prevent Afghan territory from being used as a launchpad for regional or international terror attacks.

India's intelligence agencies will be scrutinizing the practical steps taken to dismantle these networks.

Economically, the visit holds significant potential. Afghanistan, a landlocked nation, heavily relies on trade routes, and India's Chabahar Port in Iran offers a vital corridor bypassing Pakistan.

Discussions are expected to revolve around strengthening trade ties through this route, potentially exploring Indian investments in Afghanistan’s rich mining sector. Reviving traditional trade via Pakistan, if feasible, could also be on the table. For Afghanistan, fostering economic linkages with a major regional player like India is crucial for its struggling economy and could pave the way for broader development.

A key item on the Taliban's agenda is likely the upgrade of the Afghan Embassy in New Delhi.

Currently, India hosts a technical team from Afghanistan and maintains a limited diplomatic presence in Kabul. The Taliban seeks to gain full diplomatic control over the embassy and achieve a degree of international recognition, a move India has approached with extreme caution. While New Delhi acknowledges the de facto control of the Taliban in Afghanistan, full diplomatic recognition hinges on several factors, including the formation of an inclusive government and respect for human rights, particularly women's rights, which have seen significant setbacks under Taliban rule.

India's engagement with Afghanistan is not solely driven by security and economic interests; humanitarian concerns also play a significant role.

India has consistently provided humanitarian aid, including wheat, medicines, and vaccines, to the Afghan people. This assistance underscores India's long-standing commitment to the welfare of Afghanistan, separate from its stance on the Taliban regime. Any visit would likely see discussions on continuing and streamlining this vital aid.

The diplomatic landscape surrounding Afghanistan is intricate, with regional powers like China, Pakistan, and Russia actively engaging with the Taliban.

India's approach is a delicate balancing act, aiming to protect its strategic interests, maintain regional stability, and counter the influence of rival powers, all while navigating the complexities of dealing with a non-recognized regime. India's strategy involves cautious engagement, maintaining open channels, and encouraging an inclusive political process within Afghanistan.

While the prospect of Muttaqi's visit generates buzz, it's essential to remember that India's policy toward Afghanistan remains firmly anchored in the international consensus that calls for an inclusive government, respect for women's rights, and a definitive stance against terrorism.

The visit, if it materializes, would mark another step in a protracted diplomatic dance, where pragmatic engagement meets principled demands, shaping the future trajectory of Afghanistan's relationship with a crucial regional neighbor.