UnitedHealth set for Q4 2023 earnings amid cost concerns

Wolterk/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Industry bellwether UnitedHealth Group ( NYSE: UNH ) is scheduled to release its Q4 2023 results on Friday before the market opens amid rising medical costs among enrollees of government backed insurance. A few days ago, UnitedHealth’s ( UNH ) rival CVS Health ( CVS ), which operates Aetna health insurer, indicated that its medical costs for Q4 would exceed early forecasts as utilization rose in those with Medicare Advantage plans, a private version of the federal health program.

UNH raised similar concerns in June 2023 ahead of its Q2 results, which, however, ended up beating Wall Street estimates and prompted the company to narrow its earnings guidance. However, analysts are not convinced. Over the past three months, UNH’s Q3 earnings per share (EPS) estimates have seen 16 downward and only two upward revisions.

Its Q3 revenue estimates have seen eight upward adjustments and seven downward revisions. Yet UNH’s track record for earnings stands out. Over the last two years, the company has beaten both EPS and revenue estimates 100% of the time. For Q4, the consensus EPS and revenue estimates for UNH stand at $5.99 (~12% YoY) and $92.2B (~11% Y/Y), respectively.

With its Q2 2023 results in October, the company raised the lower end of its 2023 adjusted EPS outlook to a range between $24.85 and $25.00, in line with the consensus. During its annual investor conference in November, UNH set its 2024 outlook for medical loss ratio at 84%, above consensus, and issued its 2024 guidance for revenue at $400B – $403M, and adj.

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