Unintended Alliances: How Trump's Diplomacy Shifted India Closer to China

The intricate dance of global diplomacy often yields unforeseen consequences, and few narratives illustrate this better than the curious case of India and China's evolving relationship under the shadow of American foreign policy. During the Trump administration, a series of diplomatic pivots and a pronounced 'America First' stance inadvertently set in motion a dynamic that, despite historical tensions, nudged India into a more complex, and at times, closer strategic alignment with its eastern neighbor.

For decades, India has carefully balanced its ties with global powers, often leveraging its democratic values and non-aligned heritage.

The United States, particularly since the early 2000s, had been seen as a crucial partner in counterbalancing China's rising influence in the Indo-Pacific. However, the transactional nature of Trump’s foreign policy, characterized by trade disputes, demands for greater burden-sharing, and a perceived retreat from multilateral institutions, began to chip away at this established order.

One of the most significant factors was the US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and its broader protectionist trade policies.

India, a nation heavily reliant on global trade and seeking avenues for economic growth, found itself navigating a world where traditional economic partnerships were being renegotiated or dismantled. This created a vacuum, compelling India to explore alternative economic frameworks and strengthen existing ones, including those involving China, despite ongoing border disputes and geopolitical rivalries.

Furthermore, Trump’s direct engagement with Pakistan, including attempts at mediation in Kashmir, and his administration's wavering commitment to certain regional security alliances, fostered an environment of uncertainty for New Delhi.

India, seeking to safeguard its strategic interests and maintain regional stability, found itself with fewer immediate options to lean on for support against Chinese expansionism, leading to a pragmatic re-evaluation of its diplomatic toolkit.

The emphasis on bilateralism over multilateralism also played a role.

While India cherishes its bilateral relationships, its strategic doctrine also values collective security and multilateral forums for global governance. As the US scaled back its engagement with institutions like the World Trade Organization and even questioned the relevance of NATO, India, along with other nations, found common ground with China in advocating for a rules-based international order, albeit with differing interpretations of those rules.

This is not to suggest that India has become an ally of China; far from it.

Deep-seated historical grievances, territorial disputes, and ideological differences persist, as evidenced by recurring border standoffs. Rather, it highlights a strategic pragmatism. Faced with a less predictable Washington and a persistent Beijing, India was compelled to diversify its engagements and perhaps, at times, align with China on specific global issues where their interests converged, such as climate change, WTO reforms, or the need for a multipolar world order.

In essence, the Trump administration’s approach, while aiming to reassert American power, inadvertently fostered a global environment where nations like India sought greater strategic autonomy and diversification of partnerships.

This complex interplay, born out of necessity and shifting geopolitical sands, underscores how even powerful diplomatic strategies can lead to unexpected realignments, pushing nations into a closer, albeit complicated, embrace with rivals when traditional allies become less predictable.