The West must abandon weakness and commit to Ukraine’s victory

The West is strong, not weak. It has disguised its strength behind acts of weakness and portrayed its prosperity as poverty. These lies have only ever served as excuses to abandon the West’s values, interests and partners. It’s time to reverse course, abandon weakness and commit to Ukraine’s victory.

Warmongering dictators are among the most dangerous leaders on Earth. Both for the citizens they govern and the people residing in neighboring states. Not far behind them are the weak leaders who appease them. Compromise is interpreted by warmongering dictators not as restraint, but as weakness. To them, every transaction is a zero sum game.

They are emboldened not despite the concessions we make to them, but because of those concessions. Bad behavior must be punished, not rewarded. Even a child knows that rewarding someone who engages in wrongdoing only reinforces the misconduct. The same applies to bad faith actors in international politics.

At the Munich Security Conference in 2007, then Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin committed to withdrawing Russian peacekeepers from Georgia, deployed since the Georgian Civil War in the 1990s, on “ .” Instead of following through with that commitment, the Russian army the following year. The West could’ve imposed devastating consequences on Moscow for its aggression.

Rather than punishing the Kremlin, however, Russia was appeased. To be clear: The costs of stopping Russian aggression at this moment in time would’ve been marginal compared to the bill that countries like Ukraine and the West have paid ever since. French President Nicolas Sarkozy brokered a that Moscow never respected instead.

Soon after, Obama called for a in relations with Russia. German Chancellor Angela Merkel rewarded Putin with . Russia hosted the . The list goes on and on. Emboldened by the West’s feebleness, Putin doubled down on his aggressive foreign policy. To kill Ukraine’s dream of a free and prosperous Euro Atlantic future, Russia invaded and in 2014 — immediately after hosting the Olympics in Sochi.

Putin gambled. U.S. President Barack Obama slapped Russia on the wrist. Western imposed on Moscow were limited in scope and scale. The Europeans rewarded Putin with . Russia . Business continued as usual, like Putin predicted. The West’s weakness wasn’t only exploited in the European theatre, but also in the Middle East.

In 2012, Obama that America would intervene militarily if Bashar al Assad used chemical weapons in the Syrian Civil War. When the dictator of Damascus crossed Obama’s infamous “red line,” the U.S. didn’t follow through on its warning. Instead, Obama and British Prime Minister David Cameron French President Francois Hollande that the correct approach was to make a deal with Assad.

Russia brokered the agreement. Syria pledged to destroy “all” of its chemical weapons. That didn’t happen. Assad’s chemical weapons attacks continued, at least until . After all, to Putin and his community of like minded dictators, “deals” are just words scribbled on a piece of paper. Emboldened by the West’s inaction after the first invasion of Ukraine in 2014, Russia in Syria the following year.

Putin helped the Assad regime and Iranian terror proxies like Hezbollah kill up to half a million people, survive the Syrian Civil War and turn Syria into a narco state. Years later, Western fragility was on display once again in Afghanistan. The U.S. withdrew from Kabul despite sacrificing soldiers, investing in the war effort and spending two decades building a state that collapsed against the Taliban in .

Perceiving the West as weak once more, Putin launched his second invasion of Ukraine less than six months later. Russia intended to capture Kyiv within a few weeks. To say that the war isn’t going well for Moscow is an understatement. Ukraine has since destroyed roughly . U.S. intelligence estimates the Russian Army has sustained at least .

Russia has lost more than and nearly at the Battle of Avdiivka since October alone. Putin’s gamble failed. He overestimated what the Russian Army was capable of accomplishing. He underestimated Ukrainian bravery. Putin also misread President Joe Biden who, despite his faults, is not Bush or Obama.

A conflict of great power magnitude has returned to the European continent for the first time since World War II. Yet what happens in Europe doesn’t stay in Europe. By failing to extinguish the fire, what began as an ember has since turned into a firestorm that risks setting the rest of the world ablaze.

The parallels between the prelude to World War II and today’s international security environment are alarming. The West could nonetheless reduce the likelihood of a world war without sacrificing a single soldier. It all starts by abandoning weakness and committing to Ukraine’s victory instead of just ensuring its survival..