The Unintended Consequence: How Trump's Policies Pushed India Closer to China and Russia

Donald Trump's 'America First' foreign policy, characterized by a withdrawal from multilateral agreements and a transactional approach to international relations, promised a new era of American dominance. Yet, paradoxically, its implementation often yielded unintended outcomes, none perhaps more strategically significant than the inadvertent push of democratic India closer to two of America's primary geopolitical rivals: China and Russia.

For decades, U.S.

foreign policy has sought to cultivate India as a crucial democratic ally and a counterbalance to China's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. This strategic imperative was largely bipartisan, recognizing India's immense economic potential, military strength, and shared democratic values. However, the Trump administration's tenure saw a noticeable erosion of this delicate balance, driven by decisions that left key partners like India feeling undervalued and strategically exposed.

A pivotal moment was Trump's withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement shortly after taking office.

While TPP did not directly include India, its abandonment signaled a broader American retreat from economic leadership in Asia. For nations like India, deeply invested in global trade and regional stability, this move created a vacuum. China, with its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and burgeoning economic might, was quick to fill this void, offering extensive infrastructure projects and trade deals across the continent, including in countries strategically vital to India's own interests.

Furthermore, Trump's often unpredictable and transactional approach to international diplomacy, coupled with his skepticism towards long-standing alliances, caused unease in New Delhi.

While the U.S. continued to advocate for an 'Indo-Pacific strategy,' the actions on the ground often contradicted the rhetoric. India, always keen on maintaining strategic autonomy, found itself navigating a global landscape where the traditional U.S. anchor appeared less reliable. This perception was reinforced by the administration's fluctuating positions on trade and security cooperation, leaving India to weigh its options more critically.

This diplomatic drift opened opportunities for both Beijing and Moscow.

China, leveraging its economic power, sought to deepen ties with India through various bilateral and multilateral forums, despite ongoing border disputes and historical tensions. The shared interest in certain global governance reforms and a non-aligned stance on some international issues provided common ground, especially when U.S.

leadership was perceived as inconsistent. From an Indian perspective, engaging with China on economic terms became a practical necessity, even as strategic competition remained.

Russia, a long-standing defense partner to India, also capitalized on the shifting dynamics. Despite U.S. sanctions and pressure against countries purchasing Russian military equipment, India continued to rely heavily on Moscow for its defense needs, including advanced weaponry like the S-400 missile defense system.

The Trump administration's 'Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act' (CAATSA) put India in a difficult position, forcing it to choose between its traditional defense supplier and its burgeoning strategic partnership with the U.S. This pressure, rather than detaching India from Russia, often reinforced India's resolve to maintain independent foreign policy choices, inadvertently strengthening its bond with Moscow.

The cumulative effect of these actions was a subtle yet significant realignment.

While India remains a vibrant democracy with a natural inclination towards the West, Trump's policies inadvertently diminished the incentives for a closer alignment with the U.S. and provided compelling reasons for New Delhi to broaden its strategic engagements with other major powers. This outcome represents a clear diplomatic failure, one that complicated U.S.

efforts to contain China and secure its interests in a crucial geopolitical region. The 'America First' doctrine, in this instance, inadvertently fostered an 'India First' approach that looked beyond Washington for its strategic imperatives, much to the benefit of America's rivals.