The Monsoon's Swift Farewell: Chandigarh's Earliest Exit in Over Two Decades

Chandigarh, the meticulously planned city known for its green expanses, has just witnessed an unprecedented shift in its annual weather cycle. The monsoon season, usually a steadfast presence until late September, has made its earliest departure in 24 years, leaving residents and meteorologists alike pondering the implications of this abrupt farewell.

On September 15, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) officially declared the withdrawal of the monsoon from the region, marking a significant deviation from the norm.

For context, the last time Chandigarh saw such an early exit was way back on September 15, 1999 – precisely two and a half decades ago.

The standard withdrawal date for the region is typically September 25, meaning this year's monsoon decided to pack up its bags a full ten days ahead of schedule. The primary reason cited for this premature exit is the conspicuous absence of active weather systems over the plains of Northwest India, denying the monsoon the atmospheric support it usually relies on for its lingering presence.

Interestingly, despite this early departure, Chandigarh received a respectable 727.6 mm of rainfall during the entire monsoon season.

This figure actually stands 11% above the normal average of 657.4 mm for the period. However, a deeper dive into the numbers reveals a skewed distribution. The bulk of this rainfall occurred robustly in July, bringing much-needed relief and contributing significantly to the seasonal total.

The latter half of the monsoon tells a different story entirely.

August, often a month of substantial precipitation, recorded a meager 103.3 mm against its normal of 244.7 mm – a staggering deficit of 58%. September fared even worse, with just 22.8 mm of rain compared to its average of 121.7 mm, marking a severe 81% shortfall. This distinct lack of rain in the crucial concluding months is what ultimately led to the early withdrawal announcement.

Experts are now warning of potential repercussions.

This early departure could usher in an extended dry spell, coupled with higher temperatures persisting for longer than usual. Such conditions raise concerns for winter crops, particularly if there isn't adequate post-monsoon rainfall from subsequent weather phenomena. The absence of active Western Disturbances in the coming months could exacerbate this situation, potentially leading to drier soil conditions and increased irrigation demands.

Historically, IMD data paints a varied picture of Chandigarh's monsoon behavior.

While this year marks the earliest exit since 1999, the latest withdrawal on record was October 15, 2010. This fluctuation underscores the dynamic nature of regional weather patterns, but the current early exit serves as a stark reminder of the shifts underway and the need for vigilance in climate monitoring and agricultural planning.