The China Question, Revisited: Can Trump Really 'Deal' His Way Out This Time?

The political winds are, you could say, starting to pick up, and with them comes an almost palpable sense of déjà vu, especially when it comes to Washington’s ever-complicated relationship with Beijing. If Donald Trump, for instance, were to find himself back in the Oval Office, many are already wondering aloud: what exactly would his China playbook look like this time?

Honestly, the immediate thought that springs to mind for many is a repeat performance of his characteristic, big-picture bilateral 'deal.' Trump, as we all recall, holds this deep, unwavering belief in his personal ability – his sheer force of will, if you like – to forge an understanding, a handshake agreement even, with President Xi Jinping. It’s almost an article of faith for him, a very personal conviction that a grand bargain can cut through all the thorny, intricate geopolitical layers.

But let’s be frank for a moment. That initial 'Phase One' trade deal, signed with such fanfare back in 2020, didn't exactly unfold as envisioned, did it? There were lofty goals, sure, specific commitments from Beijing to purchase a staggering amount of U.S. goods and services. Yet, in truth, those targets largely went unmet. And perhaps more critically, that particular agreement barely touched the really big, systemic issues – things like state-backed subsidies, forced technology transfers, or those deep-seated intellectual property concerns that genuinely drive so much of the economic friction. It relied, quite heavily, on tariffs as its primary lever, a tactic that, while certainly impactful, didn't fundamentally alter the playing field in the way some hoped.

Meanwhile, the current administration, under President Biden, has pivoted, somewhat, maintaining some of those Trump-era tariffs but shifting its focus. You see, they’ve leaned into a strategy of 'de-risking' rather than full 'decoupling,' working to build alliances, shore up supply chains, and bolster domestic industries. It's a different rhythm, a more multilateral approach, arguably.

Yet, if Trump were to return, well, his advisors are already hinting at something that could be simultaneously familiar and, dare I say, even more aggressive. We’re talking about an "America First" agenda, perhaps intensified, possibly ushering in a new wave of broad, across-the-board tariffs. It’s a curious tension, isn’t it? This notion of a personal, grand 'deal' juxtaposed against what sounds like a decidedly confrontational, protectionist stance. And one has to ask, really, if such a strategy would truly lead to a breakthrough, or if we’d simply be watching history rhyme, if not outright repeat itself.

The question isn't just if a deal happens, but what kind of deal it would be. Would it be a transformative pact addressing the core structural issues, or another short-term arrangement destined to disappoint? Only time, and perhaps another election, will tell. But the debate, for sure, is already simmering.