The biggest sign is the hardest: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays are headed to arbitration

The appear headed for a potentially contentious hearing with after the two sides failed to reach an agreement prior to Thursday's deadline to exchange salary arbitration figures. Guerrero was the only one of the Jays' 12 arbitration eligible players who did not sign a new deal prior to Thursday'd 8 p.m.

ET deadline. According to USA Today's Bob Nightengale, Guerrero is seeking $19.9 million (U.S.) while the Jays have countered at $18.05 million. The 24 year old’s case will now be settled by a panel of arbitrators following a hearing that likely will be scheduled in February. The panel will listen to arguments from both sides and pick the salary submitted by either the player or the club.

They cannot settle for an amount in the middle. Nothing prevents the Jays and Guerrero from continuing to negotiate a new deal. Arbitration can still be avoided up until the minute a hearing starts, but the Jays are considered a "file and trial team" which means they have a policy of not settling cases after arbitration figures have been exchanged.

Exceptions are made for multi year deals. found himself in that position a year ago after he failed to reach an agreement before the salary figures deadline. Bichette and the Jays were destined for a hearing but were then able to avoid the process entirely by reaching a three year agreement worth $33.6 million (U.S.).

The deal bought out Bichette's final three years of arbitration, but it notably did not buy out any of his free agency. That means Bichette, like Guerrero, is still eligible to hit the open market following the 2025 season. Others such as Jordan Romano, Cavan Biggio, Tim Mayza and Erik Swanson are in the same situation.

The lack of an agreement between Guerrero and the Jays doesn't mean much in the short term. Guerrero remains under team control and, while his minor financial dispute is being resolved, he'll continue to serve as a valuable member of the team. For the upcoming season, nothing has changed except his potential salary.

Longer term, the lack of a deal presents bigger problems. It shows that the Jays and Guerrero's representatives couldn’t align on his value. If they can't do that for one season, many will be left wondering how those same parties will reach a compromise on a deal that spans much longer following his unpredictability at the plate.

"Vladdy has been so successful," Atkins said earlier this off season. "I think the interesting thing about him is his batted ball data: how hard he's hitting the ball, how often. There are some really positive things in last year's performance. There are positive things about Vladdy's performance overarching, they just didn't meet his expectations for the year, and we'll continue to peel back that layer and individualize (the plan) more for him." Atkins is correct that some of Guerrero's advanced stats still fit the mould of an elite game changing player.

According to Baseball Savant, he ranked in the 91st percentile of all MLB hitters with his average exit velocity of 92.1 m.p.h. His expected batting average and slugging percentage ranked in the 87th percentile or higher. Neither one is easy to do. But the more traditional stats, the ones that show up in box scores, have been much less impressive.

While the 24 year old won a home run derby last year, there were 37 players who went deep more often during the regular season. Among qualified hitters, Guerrero ranked 60th with a .789 OPS. There were 29 players with more hits. During Guerrero's breakout 2021 season, he batted .311 while leading the majors with 48 home runs and a 1.002 OPS.

In the two seasons since, he's combined to average 29 homers with an .804 OPS. That’s still good, just not the he once appeared capable of. "I think there are some unfair expectations on him, but I think he's as motivated and as driven as I've ever seen him right now," Jays manager John Schneider said earlier this off season.

"He understands that he doesn't have to do all of the heavy lifting. He's a big part of our offence, and a lot of times for him it's kind of just passing the baton to the next guy. "He's focused, he definitely is, and I think he's at the point in his career where he really wants to make an impact, not only from an offensive standpoint, but kind of a leader in our clubhouse as well." Guerrero didn't get a new deal on Thursday, but there were 11 players who did.

Romano signed for the highest amount at $7.75 million while outfielder Daulton Varsho came in second at $5.65 million. Catcher Danny Jansen received $5.2 million in his final year before free agency while utility man Cavan Biggio is set to earn $4.21 million. The other players who signed included Mayza ($3.59 million), catcher Alejandro Kirk ($2.8) million, Swanson ($2.75 million), infielder Santiago Espinal ($2.725 million), right hander Trevor Richards ($2.15 million), left hander Genesis Cabrera ($1.513 million) and right hander Nate Pearson ($800,000).

That's not bad for a day's work and yet the headline from Thursday's transactions will be all about the one deal the organization couldn't make. The Jays have already had four plus years of team control over Guerrero and only two remain. Ditto for Bichette. That's a problem but, before the Jays figure out how much they're willing to pay their bigger stars over the next decade, they'll first be told what to pay Guerrero in 2024.

No deal in January means there's almost certain to be a hearing in February and the power now shifts to a panel of arbitrators. Until then, all either side can do is wait, and prepare..