Tesla Stock Climbs 3% Ahead of Q2 2026 Results as Analysts Clash Over Margins, Capex and Robotaxi Credibility

Tesla (TSLA) closed Tuesday roughly 3% higher, snapping a four‑day losing streak just moments before the electric‑car maker is set to unveil its second‑quarter 2026 results after market close on Wednesday.

Deepwater’s Gene Munster is upbeat. He expects automotive gross margins, stripped of credit offsets, to edge just above the consensus 19.5% number, bolstered by about 480,000 deliveries – a 25% jump year‑over‑year and far beyond Wall Street forecasts. Munster also flags a hefty capital‑expenditure plan, penciling in $6.7 billion for the quarter and hinting that the full‑year capex outlook could climb past the current $25.6 billion consensus.

On the flip side, Gary Black of The Future Fund is less forgiving. In a scathing X post, he argues that Tesla’s habit of announcing ambitious robotaxi timelines – like Elon Musk’s claim in Q2 2025 that half of U.S. riders would be covered by year‑end – only deepens a credibility gap when those targets slip. Black says the pattern creates “unnecessary attack vectors” and suggests Musk bring in a few seasoned adults to steady the narrative.

Investors can expect the earnings call to field a queue of questions: the rollout schedule for robotaxis, the ramp‑up of the Optimus humanoid robot, and the ever‑present speculation about a possible Tesla‑SpaceX merger.

Consensus estimates from Tesla’s own data point to roughly $27.58 billion in Q2 revenue – a 23% year‑over‑year rise – and adjusted earnings of $0.55 per share, well above the $0.40 reported a year earlier. Yet the stock is still down about 16% for the year, showing that enthusiasm is tempered by caution.

On Stocktwits, retail chatter stayed bullish over the past 24 hours, though trading volume remained in the “normal” range, indicating measured optimism rather than a frenzy.