Tesla Options Traders Bet on Nearly 6% Implied Move After Earnings

When Tesla’s quarterly numbers roll out, the buzz isn’t just about the headline EPS – it’s about the options market’s crystal‑ball reading of the stock’s next‑day swing. As of mid‑day on July 21, 2026, the price of at‑the‑money puts and calls was whisper‑quietly telling us that the market expects roughly a 5.8% move in either direction. That’s the biggest implied jump we’ve seen since traders priced in a six‑percent swing back in October 2025.

What’s behind those numbers? A quick glance at the flow data shows a clear bias toward bullish bets: about 244,000 call contracts have changed hands, compared with just 116,000 puts. In plain English, more than two‑thirds of all premium has gone into buying the upside. The standout contract is the TSLA 380‑call expiring this Friday – a popular strike that alone has seen more than $15 million in premium traded, roughly $11 per contract.

That optimism, however, is tempered by history. Looking at the past four quarters, the CBOE’s median earnings‑day move for Tesla has been only about 3.5%. So while today’s options suggest a larger swing, the stock has traditionally been a bit more modest around earnings.

Adding another layer of intrigue is SpaceX. The rocket‑builder is about to publish its first post‑IPO earnings in early August, and the options market is already reacting – pricing in an implied 12% move for Tesla, either up or down, depending on how the space venture’s results shake out.

“Tesla is hanging on a key support level, and the SpaceX wildcard is definitely weighing on sentiment,” says Gianni Di Poce, an instructor with TheoTrade. His take, echoed by CNBC’s Oliver Renick, points to a market that’s watching two rockets: one on the road and one aiming for the stars.

For retail traders, the takeaway is simple – the options market is pricing a bigger-than‑usual swing, but the odds are still anchored in the stock’s recent earnings history. Whether you’re buying calls, hedging with puts, or just watching the price action unfold, the next couple of days promise plenty of drama for Tesla’s shareholders.