Scott Bessent's Surprising Claims: China Kept Trump Trade Deal Promises, US Economy Set for Robust 2026

In the often-heated world of global trade and economic forecasts, it’s not every day you hear a perspective that genuinely makes you pause and reconsider. Yet, Scott Bessent, a name that carries considerable weight in hedge fund circles and a former economic advisor to President Donald Trump, has offered just such a viewpoint. He recently stirred the pot, suggesting that contrary to popular belief and quite a bit of media narrative, China actually did live up to its commitments under the much-debated Phase One trade deal struck with the Trump administration.

Now, this isn’t a small claim, especially when so much of the discussion around the deal focused on perceived failures. But Bessent points to specifics: China, he argues, made good on its promise to significantly increase purchases of American agricultural products. Think vast quantities of soybeans, corn, and other vital crops that directly benefited US farmers. Beyond agriculture, he also highlights substantial buys of American oil and natural gas. These weren’t just token gestures; these were real, tangible transactions that, according to Bessent, fulfilled the spirit and the letter of many of the deal's economic stipulations. It's a facet of the story that, frankly, often gets overlooked in the broader political discourse.

But Bessent's insights don't stop at revisiting past trade agreements. He's also peering into the crystal ball, and what he sees for the American economy in 2026 is, to put it mildly, exceptionally positive. He’s predicting "very strong economic growth," a forecast that stands out when many are still bracing for potential headwinds. His optimism stems from a keen observation of the current economic landscape, which he describes as "humming." Despite a series of interest rate hikes designed to cool things down, the economy has demonstrated a remarkable resilience, pushing forward with a vigor that has surprised many seasoned analysts.

What exactly does this resilience imply? Well, it points to the growing possibility of either a "soft landing" – where inflation eases without triggering a recession – or, even more strikingly, a "no landing" scenario. A "no landing" means the economy simply continues its robust growth trajectory, almost shrugging off the pressures that typically lead to a downturn. For Bessent, the signs are clear: consumer spending remains solid, job markets are holding firm, and businesses, on the whole, seem to be adapting well to the evolving financial environment. It suggests an underlying strength that’s perhaps underestimated.

It's worth remembering that Bessent isn't just a casual observer. His career spans decades at the pinnacle of finance, including significant roles at Soros Fund Management and as founder of Key Square Capital Management. When someone with that kind of track record speaks, people listen. His dual message – a nuanced look back at a contentious trade deal, coupled with a genuinely bullish outlook for America’s immediate economic future – offers a refreshing, albeit somewhat contrarian, perspective. It serves as a potent reminder that the full story, both in trade relations and economic forecasting, often has more layers than initially meet the eye.