Rupee Expected to Hover Below 95 per Dollar Through September, BS Poll Finds

According to a fresh poll conducted by Business Standard, the consensus among market participants is that the Indian rupee is set to stay under the 95‑per‑dollar threshold at least until September. The survey, which canvassed a mix of traders, economists and industry insiders, paints a picture of a currency that is, for the moment, more or less stuck in a narrow band.

Why does the rupee appear to be holding its ground? The Reserve Bank of India’s policy stance is a big part of the story. With inflation still hovering above the comfort zone, the RBI has been reluctant to loosen its monetary grip, opting instead for a cautious approach that keeps the rupee from sliding further. At the same time, global central banks are navigating their own rate‑rise cycles, which adds another layer of uncertainty.

That said, the poll also flagged a few risks that could upset the status quo. A sudden spike in oil prices, a more aggressive Fed tightening or any unexpected geopolitical shock could all push the rupee past the 95 mark sooner rather than later. Traders told Business Standard they’re keeping an eye on these variables, even as they presently expect the currency to trade in a tight range.

From a market‑technical viewpoint, the rupee’s recent price action shows it bouncing off a resistance near 95 while finding some support around the 93 level. The mix of modest appreciation and intermittent pullbacks suggests that, unless fundamentals shift dramatically, the rupee will likely stay within this corridor for the next few months.

In short, the outlook isn’t exactly rosy, but it’s also not a free‑fall scenario. The rupee is expected to linger just under 95 per US dollar, with the RBI’s prudence and global rate dynamics acting as the main anchors. Investors would do well to stay vigilant, yet they can probably breathe a sigh of relief for the near‑term.