Retailers on the Hot Seat: Who Feels the Heat When Gas Prices Stay High?

When the national average for a gallon of gasoline finally cracked the $4 mark earlier this year, analysts across the country started asking a very simple question: which retailers will feel the sting the most? Michael Gunther, senior vice‑president of research at Consumer Edge, says the answer lies in how much of a shopper’s wallet is already devoted to fuel. The higher that share, the more fragile a retailer’s sales become when drivers tighten their belts.

Consumer Edge builds its exposure scores from real‑world credit‑card transaction data, looking at the proportion of each brand’s customers’ total spend that goes to gasoline. In plain English, a chain whose patrons spend a big slice of their monthly budget on fuel will likely see foot traffic dip the moment that fuel bill climbs.

What emerged from the analysis is a clear pattern: value‑oriented, suburban or rural‑focused businesses – the kind of stores that attract shoppers who drive longer distances and are especially price‑sensitive – top the exposure list.

Apparel & Footwear
• Boot Barn – the western‑wear specialist
• Cavender’s
• ShopWSS (Women’s Sports Society)
• Plato’s Closet
• Savers (formerly Value City)
• Goodwill Industries
• Shoe Dept. & Shoe Carnival

Beauty & Personal Care
• Great Clips (hair‑cut chain)
• Sally Beauty Supply
• Amway (direct‑selling cosmetics)
• Sport Clips (men’s grooming)
All rank above traditional beauty retailer Ulta Beauty in fuel‑price exposure.

Department & Off‑Price Stores
• Curacao
• dd’s Discounts
• Burlington
• Ross Stores

Discount/Club Retailers
• Sam’s Club (the highest‑exposed club)
• Dollar General (leading the dollar‑store segment)
• Costco Wholesale
• Walmart
• Dollar Tree

Full‑Service Restaurants
• Peter Piper Pizza
• Golden Corral
• Waffle House

Limited‑Service Restaurants
• Jack in the Box
• In‑N‑Out Burger
• Little Caesars
• Carl’s Jr.

Why this matters is simple: when gasoline stays pricey, consumers start cutting back on discretionary trips. A family that once drove to a regional mall for a weekend shoe haul may now shop online or choose a nearer dollar‑store alternative. Likewise, a casual diner might skip a sit‑down pizza joint for a quick bite at a fast‑food outlet that’s closer to home.

For investors and supply‑chain partners, the takeaway is to keep a close eye on these exposure scores. Brands with the highest fuel‑spend share could see a dip in same‑store sales, tighter margins, and the need to lean more heavily on promotions or price‑adjustment strategies to retain shoppers.

In short, the retailers most at risk are those that serve a “value‑first” clientele, operate in sprawling suburban locations, and depend heavily on foot traffic from drivers who are now paying more at the pump.