Raptors vs. Lakers prediction: NBA odds, picks, bets

Get the free Action Network app for expert picks, live odds, bet tracking and more. It’s a lame duck slate in the NBA on Tuesday night, with the “best” game seemingly between the Timberwolves and Magic. However, I’m intrigued by this Lakers vs. Raptors matchup in L.A. The Raps have been playing fast since their blockbuster trade with the Knicks .

The team’s style has changed with RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley in the fold (and sans OG Anunoby). The Lakers boast a solid defense, but they’re an aging, slower team, and a lack of athleticism could expose that defense Tuesday night. (10:30 p.m. ET, SportsNet LA) Since Barrett and Quickley arrived north of the border, the Raptors are 3 1 while averaging a whopping 125 points per game.

They’re also playing faster. Compared to their season long metrics, the Raptors pace is up about 2.5 possessions per game over the four game stretch (from 99.4 to 101.9), and they’re scoring about three more fast break points per game (from 17.9 to 20.5). Even better, the Raptors are scoring more efficiently.

Their effective field goal percentage is up about five points since the duo joined the squad (from 54.5% to 59.6%). It feels like the Raptors are running and gunning. They have three 20 point a night scorers between Barrett, Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley. They’re getting out in transition at the league’s highest rate (18%), scoring the fourth most transition points per possession (1.33), and generating the second highest transition points added per 100 possessions (3.8).

The Lakers boast the NBA’s best half court defense but are vulnerable when sped up. They rank 25th in fast break points per game allowed (15.5), 18th in transition points added per 100 possessions allowed (2.7) and 20th in transition PPP allowed (1.32). As mentioned, the Lakers roster is a bit older and rustier, which can be exposed in the open court.

That said, the Raptors defense is nothing to write home about. They’re 18th in points per 100 possessions allowed (116.8) and 16th in schedule adjusted defensive rating. Toronto is particularly vulnerable at the rim, as they run small at the four with Siakam (6 foot 8), and Jakob Poeltl isn’t an elite rim protector (+0.1 Estimated Defensive Plus Minus).

Behind that frontcourt, the Raptors rank 15th in percentage of shots allowed at the rim (32.3%) and 22nd in field goal shooting at the rim (67%). Conversely, the Lakers live at the rim, which is easy to do when you have LeBron James and Anthony Davis running the show. They’re second in the percentage of shots taken at the rim (36.7%), seventh in shooting at the rim (68.8%) and second in at the rim PPP (1.28).

Plus, while the Lakers struggle defending in transition, they’re happy to jump out and run the open floor. They rank second in transition frequency (17%) and fifth in transition PPP (1.33). Ultimately, I expect a fast paced, highly efficient game between two up tempo offenses in good schematic matchups.

So, I think we’re in for an uber high scoring ball game. I’ll happily grab the Over at 235 points, which is available at Caesars. For what it’s worth, four of the past five matchups between the Lakers and Raptors have soared over the closing total. These two know how to score on each other. Over 235 ( Caesars ) | Play to 237.