Oscars Predictions: Best Picture – ‘Oppenheimer’ Stakes Its Claim as the Frontrunner After Big Night at Golden Globes

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars , Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender.

As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday. Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below: OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS Weekly Commentary (Updated Jan. 8, 2024) : The Golden Globes Awards cemented Christopher Nolan’s historical drama as the Oscar frontrunner and made other contenders re group and re think their campaign strategies.

Universal Pictures’ after party was the place to be on Sunday, with the studio’s executives and the Nolan crew giddy over their haul. And they had every right to be. After all, “ Oppenheimer ” walked away with five statuettes, the most of any film. Most notable was its best picture (drama) triumph over its closest competitor, “Killers of the Flower Moon.” It may seem wrong to say that a movie that won two awards stumbled, but given that “Barbie” tied the record for the most Globe nominations, it should have done a whole lot better.

Now, there is such a thing as “doing too well” regarding nominations. Setting or tying records can put a target on a film’s back. The mistake would be to read “Barbie’s” loss to “Poor Things” in best picture (comedy) as a sign that “it’s over” for the movie in terms of its ultimate Oscar chances.

Academy darlings have stumbled at the Globes before rebounding later in the awards season. Look at “The Grand Budapest Hotel” (2014) beating future best picture winner “Birdman” or last year’s “The Banshees of Inisherin” topping the eventual sweeper, “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” “Poor Things” is still a viable candidate and needed a big night like Sunday to keep itself afloat going into final Oscar voting which begins on Thursday, Jan.

11. Focus Features’ “The Holdovers” has been surging for weeks, which surely helped Giamatti, and supporting actress winner Da’Vine Joy Randolph cross the finish line. People need to keep an eye on this one, especially with “Barbie” moving to adapted screenplay, if it can manage to win original screenplay, supporting actress and best actor, three major category wins have to make it a viable option for the top award, right? Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 15, 2023. The preliminary shortlist for eight categories is from Dec. 14 18, with the results announcement dropping on Dec. 21. The Oscar nomination period will run from Jan. 11 16, 2024, with the official nominees named on Jan. 23. The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.

Listed producer credits are not final and are subject to change. The Academy ultimately determines the official nominees. 2022 category winner : “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) — Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang (producers) indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could campaign in the lead or supporting categories.

All release dates are subject to change. BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry.

Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members at large, members at large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers..