Oil climbs 1% on renewed US‑Iran talks hopes, Houthi threat weighed

Houston – Oil markets woke up a shade greener on Tuesday, with Brent crude landing at about $89.22 a barrel, roughly a 1% jump from the previous close. WTI wasn’t far behind, settling near $83.23. Both benchmarks even flirted with their highest levels since mid‑June – Brent touched $91.42 and WTI $85.39 before easing back.

What’s driving the bounce? Traders say it’s a mix of optimism and caution. On the one hand, there are whispers that Washington and Tehran might finally get back to the negotiation table, a prospect that eases the fear of a sudden supply shock. On the other, the Yemen‑aligned Houthi rebels just declared a naval blockade of Saudi ports, a move that could pinch oil flows if it sticks.

Adding color to the story, Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, noted, “While the conflict remains far from resolved, the prospect of renewed talks has eased immediate concerns over further disruptions to oil supply and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.” Her tone is careful, acknowledging the lingering risk but also the market’s relief at any diplomatic opening.

Rystad Energy’s head of geopolitical analysis, Jorge León, sounded a bit more guarded: “If a cease‑fire does not materialize and Hormuz remains largely closed while the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping intensifies, the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices would be substantial.” He estimates that roughly 2.5 million barrels per day of Saudi oil could be at stake if the blockade tightens.

Meanwhile, the practical side of things shows a modest dip in traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz – just four vessels passed on Sunday, down from eight the day before, according to data from LSEG. Kpler analysts remind us there’s still about 1.35 billion barrels of crude sitting on water, a buffer that could dampen any sharp price spikes.

All of this comes against the backdrop of a ninth consecutive night of U.S. strikes on Iranian targets, with Kuwait and Bahrain reporting further Iranian attacks. The tension is palpable, yet the market seems to be threading a needle between hope for diplomacy and the reality of a new Houthi challenge.