NFL Super Wild Card Weekend odds, picks, how to watch, live stream: Expert selections, best bets and more

The NFL playoffs are finally here, and it's time to begin the process of crowning a champion. Super Wild Card Weekend features several intriguing matchups, as Tyreek Hill returns to Kansas City and Matthew Stafford heads back to Detroit. Which teams will rise to the occasion, and which ones will falter? That's what we're here to explore.

As we do every week, we've collected all of the best picks and gambling content from CBSSports.com and SportsLine and put them in one place, so you can get picks against the spread from our CBS Sports experts as well as additional feature content for each game, including plays from top SportsLine experts and the SportsLine Projection Model, best bets from our staff and more.

Ready? Let's jump in. Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Peacock) Chiefs 1.5, O/U 47.5 How about a player prop for this matchup? Alex Selesnick, also known as PropStarz, urges you to take Tua Tagovailoa Under 247.5 Passing + Rushing yards ( 115). "This is such a tough spot for Tagovailoa and a Miami team that has struggled on the road (4 4 this season) and in cold weather.

It's also a team limping into the playoffs and might to be the most banged up team heading into the postseason. Kansas City sports an elite pass defense, as well, ranking third in EPA allowed per drop back and ranking in the top five in most defensive passing metrics. The temperature is expected to be under 45 degrees at kickoff, which is significant because Tagovailoa has not played well in cold weather.

He has played four times with sub 45 degree weather, and the numbers aren't pretty 0 4 with a 55% completion percentage, four TDs to five INTs and a 71.8 passer rating." To read PropStarz' best player props for Saturday, . "The narrative surrounding this game might just lean into the weather! It's supposed to be 2 degrees or so in Kansas City on Saturday yes, with a wind chill around 10 thanks to 10 15 mph winds.

Stealing the narrative from Tyreek Hill here is pretty impressive it's Hill's first game back at Arrowhead Stadium since the Chiefs traded him to Miami and it's somehow not the top story. Kind of amazing! Assuming the temperature holds, this will be one of the four or five coldest games in NFL playoff history and the coldest home game in Chiefs history.

And, frankly, it doesn't bode well for the Dolphins. Miami is 0 10 in its last 10 games when the temperature is below 40 degrees, the longest current losing streak of any team in such games. If you take the five coldest games of Tua Tagovailoa's career all of which range between 30 degrees and 46 degrees he is 0 5 in those games, with five touchdowns, seven interceptions and completes just over 56% of his passes.

The Dolphins have also been terrible against good teams (1 5 vs. playoff teams) but so have the Chiefs (1 4, the one win against Miami!) so I don't read too much into that." CBS Sports Senior Writer Will Brinson is on the Chiefs to cover the spread at home. To read his best bets for Super Wild Card Weekend, click .

Before you make any Dolphins vs. Chiefs picks or NFL picks, you need to see what SportsLine senior analyst Larry Hartstein has to say, given his mastery of picks in games involving Miami. A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed working for Pro Football Focus.

He tied for 52nd place (out of 1,598 entries) in the 2022 Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, going 53 34 3 ATS. Those selections form the basis of his weekly SportsLine NFL best bets, which are 69 43 2 since the start of last season, including a 14 4 record the last six weeks. Most importantly, Hartstein has a read on the pulse of the Dolphins.

He is 28 17 1 (+904) on his last 46 picks in games involving Miami! Anyone who has followed him is way up. We can tell you he's leaning Under the point total, but to check out his official pick on the spread, . Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo ) Cowboys 7, O/U 48 "The trends in this matchup are worrisome.

The Packers are 4 0 SU and ATS all time vs. the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium despite being underdogs in all four matchups, Dak Prescott is 1 5 ATS in his six playoff starts while Dallas is 0 4 ATS in its last four home playoff games. "Jordan Love has been playing some good ball, but the Packers bring in the youngest playoff team since the 1974 Bills, with an average age of 25 years, 214 days.

The Cowboys have famously been dominant at home this season. Dallas is a perfect 8 0, and six of those victories have come by 20+ points. The Cowboys have a chance to change the narrative when it comes to their recent postseason failures, and they know this. Prescott and Co. begin the 2023 postseason with a statement victory." Jordan Dajani has the Cowboys covering the number on Sunday.

To read his breakdown of every game this week and his predictions for the entire NFL playoff bracket, click . SportsLine expert Griffin Carroll, who hit a nearly 400 1 prop parlay in 2023, has a few anytime TD props for the first round of the NFL playoffs you should take note of. One player he has finding the end zone is Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson (+180).

"Ferguson is second among Cowboys pass catchers with 24 red zone targets, and he's scored in four of eight home games this season. The Dallas TE has been quiet with his touchdowns of late, but he's remained incredibly involved in this offense, logging 4+ receptions in six straight games.

Green Bay is tied for the sixth most touchdowns allowed to tight ends this season, and Dallas should be able to move the football against this defense." To check out Carroll's other anytime touchdown picks, . "This should be a high flying affair with both offenses rolling up big numbers.

I think is playing outstanding football and is as well. The pressure is firmly on Prescott and the Cowboys. That's why I see the loose Packers and Love making a game of this. The Cowboys will win it, but it's close." That's Pete Prisco's take on the Packers Cowboys showdown.

To take a look at all of Pete's picks, . Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo ) Lions 3.5, O/U 50.5 Again, before you make any Super Wild Card Weekend picks or parlays, you need to see what SportsLine senior analyst Larry Hartstein has to say. For Super Wild Card Weekend, Hartstein has locked in three confident best bets.

If you successfully parlay his picks, you're looking at a payout of almost 6 1. We can tell you Hartstein loves the Rams to cover against the Lions, but to check out his other parlay legs, . "I'll be on the moneyline as well here, but in a best bets column with a 1:1 payout it would be idiotic not to take the points as well.

The Lions are an awesome team and an awesome story and Jared Goff's going to be playing with a massive chip on his shoulder. But Matthew Stafford smells some blood in the water here when it comes to the postseason the Rams can legitimately make another Super Bowl run. Stafford is playing his first playoff game in Detroit despite spending 12 years with the Lions and I think he'll show up completely locked in for this one.

Kyren Wiliams, Puka Nakua and Cooper Kupp are all completely healthy and the Rams offensive line has been excellent for the second half of the season. The Lions won't go quietly here by any stretch of the imagination and I think we get a bunch of points. Dan Campbell might go nuts on fourth down and if Detroit converts a ton of them it might tilt the entire game, especially since Sean McVay leans conservative on decision making in these spots.

But I trust Stafford and this Rams team to get it done on the road." CBS Sports Senior Writer Will Brinson is on the Rams to upset the Lions. To read his best bets for Super Wild Card Weekend, click . Before you make any Rams vs. Lions picks or NFL playoff predictions of your own, you need to see what NFL expert R.J.

White has to say, given his mastery of picks in games involving the Lions. White, a Fantasy and gambling editor for CBS Sports, consistently crushes against the spread picks and went 535 450 30 on his ATS picks from 2017 22, which returned more than $3,500 to $100 players. He also closed the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 107 80 6 run on his last 193 against the spread and total NFL picks, returning more than $1,800 for $100 bettors.

Most importantly, White has a read on the pulse of the Lions. He is 60 42 2 (+1300) on his last 104 against the spread picks in games involving Detroit. We can tell you he's leaning Over the total, but to check out his official pick, . Monday, 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS, ) Bills 10, O/U 36.5 "T.J.

Watt has been ruled out for this game, which puts a severe dent in Pittsburgh's chances of disrupting Josh Allen and pulling off the upset. Without Watt, the Steelers are 1 10, allow an average of six more points a game, and have half as many sacks per game. Meanwhile, the Bills winning the AFC East in Week 18 and jumping up to the No.

2 seed is a massive development because they are a far superior team at home than they are on the road, which includes the play from Allen. The Bills quarterback is completing 67.6% of his passes and has a 102.4 passer rating at Highmark Stadium compared to a 65.4 completion percentage and an 83.0 passer rating on the road.

He's also thrown for more touchdowns and fewer interceptions at home as well. Translation: The Steelers are going to get the best version of Allen in this game, which is a terrifying thought for their hopes of advancing." Tyler Sullivan isn't scared of the big number, he likes the Bills to roll Sunday afternoon.

To read his breakdown of every game this week, click . "The Steelers got stuck with the dreaded seventh seed. When it comes to the NFL playoffs, that is pretty much the kiss of death. Since the NFL playoff field expanded to 14 teams in 2020, there have been six games involving a seven seed and not only has the seven seed gone 0 6 in those games, but they've lost them by an average of 12.2 points per game.

"Even if I throw that piece of information out the window, there is one thing I can't throw out the window and that's the fact that the Steelers won't have T.J. Watt, who suffered a Grade 2 MCL sprain in Week 18. "Usually, when I pick against the Steelers, it's because I have no faith in their offense, but this week, I think it's their defense that's going to let them down.

Watt has been with the Steelers since 2017 and any time he's missed a game, it's pretty much been a kiss of death. If you're scoring at home, that's two kisses of death for the Steelers in one game, which feels like too many kisses of death to overcome. "Watt has missed 11 games in his career and the Steelers have gone 1 10 in those games.

When he's on the field, you have to account for him at all times, but when he's not out there, the Steelers defense falls apart. When Watt is on the field, the Steelers have only surrendered 19.8 points per game in his career, but when he's not out there, that number has shot up to 26.3 "Also, the Steelers have averaged more than twice as many sacks per game (3.3 to 1.5) when Watt is on the field versus when he isn't.

If there's one player the Steelers couldn't afford to lose for this game, it's Watt. "The only way the Steelers will win this game is if Mason Rudolph pulls out a miracle, but after winning three straight games to end the regular season, he has to be out of miracles by now. Right? RIGHT?!?!" John Breech has the Bills winning this matchup, but he's taking the Steelers to cover the spread.

To read his breakdown of every game in Super Wild Card Weekend, click . Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN, fubo ) Eagles 1.5, O/U 44.5 "If I had to rank all six wild card games based on watchability, I'm not even sure I'd put this one on the list. We have an Eagles team that's totally imploding going up against a Buccaneers offense that's falling apart, and you know what, now that I'm saying all of this out loud, this game might be so bad that it's actually good.

This is classic train wreck television! "On one hand, you have the Eagles, who were sitting at 10 1 heading into the month of December, but then proceeded to lose five of six games to end the season. I'm not exactly sure what the issue is in Philadelphia, but I can think of a few: Their defense has been bad, their offense is struggling and the players don't seem to really trust the coaching staff anymore.

That sounds like the recipe for a total collapse. "If the Eagles were playing anyone else, I would automatically pick against them, but the Buccaneers are the one team they MIGHT be able to beat. Over the past two weeks, the Bucs offense has completely disappeared. They had a chance to clinch the division title in Week 17, but they only managed to score 13 points in a loss to the Saints.

One week later, they managed to score exactly nine points against the worst team in football (Panthers). "These teams are both headed in the wrong direction, and when that's the case, it's almost impossible to make a pick. The Eagles are 5 1 this year when they rush for 140 yards or more, but I have a hard time seeing them hit that number against a Buccaneers defense that surrendered the fifth fewest rushing yards in the NFL this year.

"The Eagles have hit rock bottom so many times this year that they're basically living there, and if you're living at rock bottom, I can't pick you to win." John Breech is taking the Bucs to upset Jalen Hurts and the reigning NFC champions. To read his breakdown of every game in Super Wild Card Weekend, click .

Before you make any Eagles vs. Buccaneers picks or any other NFL Wild Card predictions, you need to see which side Matthew Severance is on. Severance is a well connected writer and high volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005 and has emerged as one of SportsLine's top experts in multiple sports.

He enters Super Wild Card Weekend on a 49 28 roll (+1018) on all . He is also an amazing 20 7 1 on his last 28 picks in games involving the Eagles (+1202). Anyone who has followed him is way up. We can tell you he's leaning Under on the point total, but to view his official pick on this primetime playoff matchup, ..