New Hampshire's 2026 Senate Race: An Early Look at the Political Landscape

As the political calendar inches closer to the 2026 election cycle, a fresh poll from the University of New Hampshire offers an intriguing early glimpse into the dynamics of the state's hotly anticipated U.S. Senate race. The results suggest that while incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen holds a strong position, the potential entry of a high-profile Republican could dramatically reshape the contest.

Senator Shaheen, a veteran political figure, currently enjoys a robust 52% approval rating among New Hampshire adults.

This strong public backing provides her with a significant advantage as she contemplates a bid for re-election. The poll highlights her consistent support across various demographic groups, underscoring her broad appeal within the state.

When pitted against several potential Republican challengers in hypothetical matchups, Shaheen consistently demonstrates an electoral edge.

Against former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte, Shaheen leads by a substantial margin of 54% to 33%. Similarly, in a contest against former State Senate President Chuck Morse, Shaheen maintains a commanding lead, 53% to 28%. These figures suggest a challenging path for these specific Republican contenders.

However, the landscape shifts considerably with the hypothetical inclusion of Republican Governor Chris Sununu.

Should Sununu decide to enter the Senate race, the contest tightens significantly. The UNH poll indicates that Sununu would lead Shaheen by a margin of 48% to 44%, a four-point advantage that falls within the poll's margin of error but signals a much more competitive race. Governor Sununu's consistent popularity and high favorability ratings, particularly among fellow Republicans (84% favorable), position him as the most formidable potential challenger to Senator Shaheen.

The question of Governor Sununu's future political aspirations has been a recurring theme in New Hampshire politics.

While he has yet to formally declare his intentions, his presence in hypothetical polls consistently demonstrates his significant impact on the state's political calculations. His strong performance against Shaheen underscores his potential to energize the Republican base and attract independent voters.

The poll, conducted by the UNH Survey Center, surveyed 918 New Hampshire adults from May 23-27, 2024.

With a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points for the entire sample, these early findings offer a valuable, albeit preliminary, insight into what promises to be a closely watched election in two years' time. As candidates weigh their options and the political narrative unfolds, New Hampshire remains a crucial battleground state, and the 2026 Senate race is already shaping up to be a compelling story.